Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 09:30:49 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 8 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.75 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +9.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 69% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +0.7% stable · real yield 2.31% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.73 normal, SPY/DXY -0.22 normal, SPY/TNX -0.18 normal, SPY/Oil -0.31 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.33 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — dark pool, gamma, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 8 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 8 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $752.50 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $752.18
QQQ: $717.05 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.98
IWM: $295.27 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.39
VIX: 16.39 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.585%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$752.50	56.67	68.0	$752.18	Neutral	0.71
QQQ	$717.05	44.56	83.1	$710.98	Neutral	1.07
IWM	$295.27	50.74	31.7	$295.39	Bearish	2.34

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.39	38.89	39.4	$10.50	Bearish	1.58
TNX	45.85	62.72	42.8	-	-	-
GLD	$372.80	41.64	40.0	$370.98	Bearish	1.85
DXY	100.94	48.43	23.5	-	-	-
SLV	$52.96	34.59	22.3	$35.00	Neutral	1.15

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.94%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Health Care	94.4%	0/0
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Utilities	86.7%	0/0
Industrials	70.1%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	57.6%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Communication Services	45.0%	0/0
Energy	31.6%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $73.67 (5d: +4.6%)
Brent Crude: $78.51 | Spread: $4.84
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
Heating Oil: $3.5700/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.95/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $55.99
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.31

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.734	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.219	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.177	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.311	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 783.0
0DTE Put Volume: 584.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.75 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $0.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $752.50)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.58%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
DXY: 100.94
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,824B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,948B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,452 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 69%.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $56.95/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $112.0 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (752.70) reclaimed ZGL (752.18) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (751.65) dropped below ZGL (752.18) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=115059B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.59%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Federal Budget Balance(Jun): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (↑7.5% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (↑5.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[BREAKING] [1] E3 condemns Iran attacks on shipping and regional countries Time: 2026-07-13T13:03:31.969Z

[2] UK summons Iran ambassador after IRGC designation Time: 2026-07-13T12:43:07.045Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily — 56.7% of normal
Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost