Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 09:02:45 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.6% stable Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.19 normal, SPY/Oil -0.31 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.32 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $752.70 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $752.18
- QQQ: $718.18 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.98
- IWM: $295.10 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.39
- VIX: 16.34 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.575%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $752.70 | 56.67 | 68.0 | $752.18 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| QQQ | $718.18 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $710.98 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| IWM | $295.10 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $295.39 | Bearish | 2.34 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.34 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.59 |
| TNX | 45.75 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.94 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.98 | Bearish | 1.66 |
| DXY | 100.95 | 48.59 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.86 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $36.00 | Neutral | 1.12 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 94.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 70.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $74.15 (5d: +5.3%)
- Brent Crude: $79.03 | Spread: $4.88
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.31/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.08
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.743 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.239 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.19 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.307 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $106.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $752.70)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.58%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.95
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,824B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,948B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,563 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 69%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.31/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.7 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (752.70) reclaimed ZGL (752.18) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (751.65) dropped below ZGL (752.18) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=115059B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Federal Budget Balance(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Swiss Franc: SNB intervention and cautious policy stance - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-snb-intervention-and-cautious-policy-stance-rabobank-202607131255 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:55:09 Z
[2] S&P 500: Within touching distance of a record high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-within-touching-distance-of-a-record-high-202607131253 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:53:45 Z
[3] Oil: Strait of Hormuz risks reshape macro mix - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-strait-of-hormuz-risks-reshape-macro-mix-bny-202607131244 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:44:34 Z
[4] Germany Current Account n.s.a. declined to β¬10.4B in May from previous β¬13.8B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-current-account-nsa-declined-to-eu104b-in-may-from-previous-eu138b-202607131235 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:35:43 Z
[5] Euro climbs above 1.1400 as US Dollar loses ground URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-climbs-above-11400-as-us-dollar-loses-ground-202607131234 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:34:43 Z
[6] US President Trump: We are taking over the Strait of Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-we-are-taking-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-202607131231 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:31:39 Z
[7] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBPUSD bounces back to near 1.3400 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbpusd-bounces-back-to-near-13400-202607131231 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:31:07 Z
[8] US Dollar Index: Range holds as markets await Warsh and CPI - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-range-holds-as-markets-await-warsh-and-cpi-dbs-202607131228 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:28:13 Z
[9] Japanese Yen: Consolidation near resistance band against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-consolidation-near-resistance-band-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202607131215 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:15:03 Z
[10] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ tightening risks watched - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-tightening-risks-watched-uob-202607131157 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:57:55 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Trump says US will take control of Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-07-13T12:36:31.894Z
[2] Kuwait says Iranian attacks pose serious threat to citizens' security Time: 2026-07-13T12:34:20.126Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost