Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 08:01:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.17 normal, SPY/Oil -0.32 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.89 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.76
- QQQ: $726.41 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.59
- IWM: $296.00 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.03 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.569%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.89 | 56.67 | 68.0 | $746.76 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $726.41 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $710.59 | None | None |
| IWM | $296.00 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $250.00 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.03 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $11.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 45.69 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.90 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.97 | None | None |
| DXY | 101.05 | 50.56 | 23.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.14 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $36.00 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 94.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 70.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $74.51 (5d: +5.8%)
- Brent Crude: $79.28 | Spread: $4.77
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.07/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.08
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.784 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.241 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.17 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.32 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 705,663.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 701,134.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $106.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $754.89)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.05
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,824B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,948B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,833 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 69%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.07/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.7 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=115059B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=115025B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Federal Budget Balance(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts below $4,100, but bears start to look exhausted URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-drifts-below-4-100-but-bears-start-to-look-exhausted-202607131146 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:46:24 Z
[2] Market warp: The AI trade enters the eye of the storm URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/market-warp-the-ai-trade-enters-the-eye-of-the-storm-202607131136 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:36:44 Z
[3] Canadian Dollar: Supported against US Dollar by steady BoC outlook - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-supported-against-us-dollar-by-steady-boc-outlook-bny-202607131132 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:32:33 Z
[4] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bounces back to near 1.3400 as US Dollar turns upside down URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-bounces-back-to-near-13400-as-us-dollar-turns-upside-down-202607131129 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:29:31 Z
[5] US Dollar: Fed data focus supports modest gains - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-data-focus-supports-modest-gains-bbh-202607131121 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:21:25 Z
[6] Kiwi nears 0.5800 as RBNZ tightening hopes offset risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/kiwi-nears-05800-as-rbnz-tightening-hopes-offset-risk-aversion-202607131113 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:13:51 Z
[7] Gold declines as renewed US-Iran hostilities boost Oil prices, Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-renewed-us-iran-hostilities-boost-oil-prices-fed-rate-hike-bets-202607131112 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:12:06 Z
[8] Swiss Franc: ECB support limits gains against euro - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-ecb-support-limits-gains-against-euro-rabobank-202607131111 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:11:09 Z
[9] Polish Zloty: Dovish NBP pressures PLN against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-dovish-nbp-pressures-pln-against-euro-ing-202607131102 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:02:43 Z
[10] Indian Rupee weakens amid surging Oil prices, India's CPI rises strongly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-sharpy-lower-amid-higher-us-dollar-oil-prices-202607130517 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:44:13 Z
[11] India's retail CPI rises strongly by 4.38% in June, beats 4.3% estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indias-retail-cpi-rises-strongly-by-438-in-june-beats-43-estimates-202607131037 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:37:55 Z
[12] Australian Dollar: Momentum fades into sideways band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-momentum-fades-into-sideways-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202607131003 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:03:49 Z
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] Video: Iran missile bears 'Game Over, USA' message Time: 2026-07-13T11:52:27.940Z
[BREAKING] [2] UK proscribes Iran's IRGC under new state-threat powers - Sky News Time: 2026-07-13T11:39:37.335Z
[BREAKING] [3] Tanker approached by six small boats south of Aden - UKMTO Time: 2026-07-13T11:35:57.825Z
[BREAKING] [4] Yemen armed forces strike Sanaa airport runway to stop Iranian plane landing Time: 2026-07-13T11:23:22.409Z
[5] Airstrikes heard near Sanaa airport in Yemen as warplanes fly overhead - Reuters Time: 2026-07-13T11:09:26.258Z
[BREAKING] [6] US strikes three sites in Abadan, killing two, Iranian official says Time: 2026-07-13T10:57:51.893Z
[7] Iranian threats against Italian leaders are unacceptable, Tajani says Time: 2026-07-13T10:36:40.102Z
[8] Bahrain says it intercepts several Iranian aerial attacks Time: 2026-07-13T10:08:33.816Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.8 billion/day economic cost