Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-13 04:01:18 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 69% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral · real yield 2.31% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.17 normal, SPY/Oil -0.32 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 88/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $754.89 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.76
QQQ: $726.41 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.59
IWM: $296.00 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
VIX: 15.03 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.569%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$754.89	56.67	68.0	$746.76	Neutral	0.63
QQQ	$726.41	44.56	83.1	$710.59	None	None
IWM	$296.00	50.74	31.7	$250.00	None	None

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.03	38.89	39.4	$11.00	None	None
TNX	45.69	62.72	42.8	-	-	-
GLD	$377.90	41.64	40.0	$370.97	None	None
DXY	101.05	50.56	23.4	-	-	-
SLV	$54.14	34.59	22.3	$36.00	None	None

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.94%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Health Care	94.4%	0/0
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Utilities	86.7%	0/0
Industrials	70.1%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	57.6%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Communication Services	45.0%	0/0
Energy	31.6%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $74.51 (5d: +5.8%)
Brent Crude: $79.28 | Spread: $4.77
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
Heating Oil: $3.6700/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.07/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $55.08
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.784	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.241	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.17	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.32	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 705,663.0
0DTE Put Volume: 701,134.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $106.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $754.89)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.57%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
DXY: 101.05
Growth vs Value: 0.96
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,824B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,948B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,951 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 69%.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.07/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.7 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=115059B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=115025B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.59%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Federal Budget Balance(Jun): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (↑7.5% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (↑5.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (20):

[1] Japanese Yen: Intervention risks rise again - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risks-rise-again-ing-202607130753 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:53:03 Z

[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $58.00 due to prevailing bearish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-5800-due-to-prevailing-bearish-bias-202607130751 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:51:19 Z

[3] British Pound: Rally fades into range trade against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rally-fades-into-range-trade-against-us-dollar-uob-202607130733 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:33:16 Z

[4] US Dollar: Modest grind higher with CPI in focus - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-modest-grind-higher-with-cpi-in-focus-ocbc-202607130721 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:21:22 Z

[5] Indian Rupee declines to over six-week low amid surging Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-sharpy-lower-amid-higher-us-dollar-oil-prices-202607130517 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:16:39 Z

[6] Stocks push higher [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stocks-push-higher-video-202607130714 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:14:02 Z

[7] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Steadies near 0.8500 with upside attempts limited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-steadies-near-08500-with-upside-attempts-limited-202607130710 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:10:03 Z

[8] Gold struggles near daily low as energy-driven inflation fears lift Fed hike bets and USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slides-back-closer-to-4-050-as-iran-risks-and-fed-hike-bets-boost-usd-202607130416 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:08:17 Z

[9] British Pound remains subdued as US-Iran tensions lift US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-subdued-as-us-iran-tensions-lift-us-dollar-202607130702 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:02:55 Z

[10] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Higher Oil prices strengthen Canadian Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-higher-oil-prices-strengthen-canadian-dollar-202607130701 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:01:50 Z

[11] Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-1.459B, below expectations ($-0.96B) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-current-account-balance-came-in-at-1459b-below-expectations-096b-in-may-202607130700 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:00:59 Z

[12] New Zealand Dollar holds steady near 0.5750 as US launches new wave of strikes against Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-steady-near-05750-as-us-launches-new-wave-of-strikes-against-iran-202607130659 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:59:28 Z

[13] Brent: Geopolitics lift prices as speculators stay cautious - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-geopolitics-lift-prices-as-speculators-stay-cautious-ing-202607130657 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:57:36 Z

[14] Forex Today: US Dollar benefits from risk aversion as Middle East situation heats up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-benefits-from-risk-aversion-as-middle-east-situation-heats-up-202607130654 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:54:59 Z

[15] Canadian Dollar: Strong US Dollar and oil outlook weigh - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-strong-us-dollar-and-oil-outlook-weigh-commerzbank-202607130646 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:46:16 Z

[16] Euro: Range trading with downside risks against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-trading-with-downside-risks-against-us-dollar-uob-202607130617 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:17:55 Z

[17] Euro flirts with 1.1400 on risk-averse markets as Iran's war escalates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-flirts-with-11400-on-risk-averse-markets-as-irans-war-escalates-202607130617 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:17:28 Z

[18] The AI sell-off that isn't about AI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-ai-sell-off-that-isnt-about-ai-202607130611 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:11:25 Z

[19] Japan has no plan to change GPIF's target asset allocation -- Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-has-no-plan-to-change-gpifs-target-asset-allocation-reuters-202607130607 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:07:19 Z

[20] Australian Dollar underperforms amid cautious market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-underperforms-amid-cautious-market-mood-202607130604 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 06:04:12 Z

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran says US breaches have pushed MoU into crisis Time: 2026-07-13T07:40:22.066Z

[2] Iran must renounce nuclear program for sanctions relief, French FM says Time: 2026-07-13T07:15:06.901Z

[3] Iran official calls for action against those behind Khamenei's killing Time: 2026-07-13T07:05:00.768Z

[BREAKING] [4] Iran army says it downs US LUCAS attack drone over Bandar Abbas Time: 2026-07-13T06:18:14.772Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 135 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily — 56.7% of normal
Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost