Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-12 22:00:41 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.90 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.19 normal, SPY/TNX -0.20 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.33 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 89/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.89 | 50 SMA $741.24 | 200 SMA $694.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.72
- QQQ: $726.41 | 50 SMA $715.16 | 200 SMA $638.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.62
- IWM: $296.00 | 50 SMA $288.62 | 200 SMA $262.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.03 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.569%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.89 | 81.16 β² | 68.0 | $746.72 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $726.41 | 44.56 | 83.1 | $710.62 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| IWM | $296.00 | 50.74 | 31.7 | $250.00 | Bearish | 2.66 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.03 | 38.89 | 39.4 | $11.00 | Neutral | 1.28 |
| TNX | 45.69 | 62.72 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.90 | 41.64 | 40.0 | $370.97 | Bearish | 2.14 |
| DXY | 100.97 βΌ | 51.22 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.14 | 34.59 | 22.3 | $36.00 | Neutral | 1.12 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.99B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3% βΌ
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3% βΌ
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 94.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 70.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.41 βΌ (5d: +4.2% βΌ)
- Brent Crude: $76.01 βΌ | Spread: $4.60 β²
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8200/gal βΌ
- Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal βΌ
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.25/bbl βΌ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.08
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.782 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.194 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.204 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.334 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.90 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $623.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $754.89)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.97 βΌ
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,819B βΌ
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,950B β²
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,730B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,678 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 69%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.25/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.7 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=115025B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.59%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Federal Budget Balance(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $59.00 amid rising US-Iran strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-5900-amid-rising-us-iran-strikes-202607130148 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 01:48:25 Z
[2] Japanese Yen weakens vs USD as Iran tensions and rate gap counter intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-vs-usd-as-iran-tensions-and-rate-gap-counter-intervention-risks-202607130144 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 01:44:09 Z
[3] New Zealand Dollar declines as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-declines-as-safe-haven-demand-lifts-us-dollar-202607130117 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 01:17:47 Z
[4] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7972 vs. 6.7989 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67972-vs-67989-previous-202607130115 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 01:15:37 Z
[5] Gold falls below $4,100 as fresh US-Iran strikes stoke inflation fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-below-4-100-as-fresh-us-iran-strikes-stoke-inflation-fears-202607130105 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 01:05:18 Z
[6] British Pound remains depressed below 1.3400 as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-depressed-below-13400-as-escalating-us-iran-tensions-underpin-usd-202607130103 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 01:03:07 Z
[7] WTI surges above $74.00 as US-Iran strikes reignite Hormuz risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-surges-above-7400-as-us-iran-strikes-reignite-hormuz-risks-202607130052 Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:52:59 Z
[8] Euro weakens to near 1.1400 as US-Iran escalation boosts US Dollar
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-to-near-11400-as-us-iran-escalation-boosts-us-dollar-202607130019
Published: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:19:48 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Bahrain activates air raid sirens Time: 2026-07-13T01:55:00.000Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran state-linked media: missiles, drones launched against US targets Time: 2026-07-13T01:26:19.884Z
[3] Oil jumps as Hormuz tensions rattle global markets Time: 2026-07-13T01:05:50.089Z
[4] Iran says one killed in strike on Khuzestan water facility Time: 2026-07-13T00:31:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 134 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 500
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost