Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-10 12:45:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.31% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.43 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.19 normal, SPY/Oil -0.18 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.0% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 87/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 87 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth rising to 68% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $753.46 | 50 SMA $740.37 | 200 SMA $694.04 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $749.52
- QQQ: $725.00 | 50 SMA $713.80 | 200 SMA $637.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $719.7
- IWM: $295.36 | 50 SMA $288.18 | 200 SMA $261.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.30 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.557%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $753.46 | 58.38 | 68.2 | $749.52 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| QQQ | $725.00 | 50.25 | 84.2 | $719.70 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| IWM | $295.36 | 61.73 | 30.6 | $250.00 | Bearish | 2.07 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.30 | 45.21 | 46.0 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.52 |
| TNX | 45.57 β² | 58.52 | 42.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.25 | 41.43 | 40.9 | $370.97 | Bearish | 1.64 |
| DXY | 100.75 | 48.15 | 24.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.17 | 32.93 | 23.6 | $38.00 | Neutral | 1.44 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.81B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.38% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 64.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.23 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $75.72 | Spread: $4.49
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.15/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.46
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.839 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.432 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.19 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.183 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.89
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,787,923.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,419,396.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $392.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $746 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $753.46)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.56%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.75
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,956B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,839B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,733B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,982 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.31% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.15/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.25 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=114668B
- [INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.58%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.058% | Prev: 5.050%
- Existing Home Sales(Jun): 4.09 vs Est. 4.19 (MISS) | Prev: 4.19
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Jun): -2.4% | Prev: 3.7%
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.79 (β7.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.51 (β5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] British Pound holds firm as Trump ceasefire shock tests USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-firm-as-trump-ceasefire-shock-tests-usd-202607101625 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:25:53 Z
[2] Federal Reserve: Monetary policy report cites "high inflation" due to tariffs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-monetary-policy-report-cites-high-inflation-due-to-tariffs-202607101623 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:23:09 Z
[3] Silver edges lower despite Middle East tensions as Fed rate hike bets limit recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-edges-lower-despite-middle-east-tensions-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-limit-recovery-202607101607 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:07:42 Z
[4] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Recovery extends, but overhead SMAs cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-recovery-extends-but-overhead-smas-cap-the-upside-202607101604 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:04:55 Z
[5] Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.87% above expectations (0.8%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-consumer-price-index-mom-registered-at-087-above-expectations-08-in-june-202607101600 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:00:59 Z
[6] Singapore Dollar: Range-bound trade outlook against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-range-bound-trade-outlook-against-us-dollar-uob-202607101552 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:52:00 Z
[7] AUD/USD climbs as Chinese Yuan strength supports the Aussie URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-climbs-as-chinese-yuan-strength-supports-the-aussie-202607101551 Published: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:51:46 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Vance, Witkoff, Kushner in contact with Qatar over Iran diplomacy - CBS Time: 2026-07-10T16:41:03.654Z
[2] US cannot negotiate while Iran reneges on obligations, envoy tells UN meeting Time: 2026-07-10T16:22:02.537Z
[3] Iran MP says Arab neighbors will pay 'irreparable price' for backing US Time: 2026-07-10T16:21:57.181Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-07-07, 3 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 22 of 60 normal daily β 36.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 500
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost