Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-09 15:57:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.00 balanced |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +4.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral Β· real yield 2.30% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.20 normal, SPY/Oil -0.18 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.20 | 50 SMA $739.64 | 200 SMA $693.60 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.35
- QQQ: $722.70 | 50 SMA $712.62 | 200 SMA $636.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $705.99
- IWM: $297.14 | 50 SMA $287.78 | 200 SMA $261.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.07
- VIX: 15.79 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.539%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.20 | 46.33 | 66.5 | $745.35 | Bearish | 0.35 |
| QQQ | $722.70 | 43.88 | 84.0 | $705.99 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| IWM | $297.14 | 52.35 | 28.6 | $295.07 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.79 | 52.74 | 52.0 | $10.49 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| TNX | 45.39 | 65.63 | 41.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.10 | 32.47 | 40.3 | $370.96 | Bearish | 1.54 |
| DXY | 100.96 | 63.10 | 24.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.12 | 24.14 | 22.8 | $38.00 | Neutral | 1.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.73B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.85 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $76.09 | Spread: $4.24
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.78
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.85
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.837 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.422 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.2 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.18 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.41
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,124,436.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,107,376.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.00 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $618.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $751 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $751.20)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.96
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,839B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,839B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,938B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,615B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,302 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.30% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.93/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.0 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=114299B
- [WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 30-Year Bond Auction: 5.058% | Prev: 5.050%
- Existing Home Sales(Jun): 4.09 vs Est. 4.19 (MISS) | Prev: 4.19
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Jun): -2.4% | Prev: 3.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.67 (β5.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.37 (β4.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.49 (β7.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Japanese Yen: Yen eyes BoJ and key resistance zone against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-yen-eyes-boj-and-key-resistance-zone-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202607091936 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:36:32 Z
[2] Eurozone: Energy shock keeps pressure on ECB - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-energy-shock-keeps-pressure-on-ecb-nordea-202607091917 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:17:06 Z
[3] Pound Sterling Price News & Forecast: GBP/USD trades slightly higher as the US Dollar fails to gain strong traction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-forecast-gbp-usd-trades-slightly-higher-as-the-us-dollar-fails-to-gain-strong-traction-202607091911 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:11:54 Z
[4] Singapore Dollar: Range bias holds above 1.2890 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-range-bias-holds-above-12890-against-us-dollar-uob-202607091902 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:02:10 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 131 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost