Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-09 13:51:02 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.86 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +4.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.7% neutral Β· real yield 2.30% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.45 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.22 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.20 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.56 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 86/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 86 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.87 | 50 SMA $739.64 | 200 SMA $693.60 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.75
- QQQ: $724.00 | 50 SMA $712.62 | 200 SMA $636.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.89
- IWM: $297.77 | 50 SMA $287.78 | 200 SMA $261.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.14
- VIX: 16.00 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.529%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.87 | 46.33 | 66.5 | $745.75 | Bearish | 0.39 |
| QQQ | $724.00 | 43.88 | 84.0 | $710.89 | Bearish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $297.77 | 52.35 | 28.6 | $295.14 | Neutral | 0.63 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.00 | 52.74 | 52.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.28 |
| TNX | 45.29 | 65.63 | 41.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $379.41 | 32.47 | 40.3 | $370.96 | Neutral | 1.41 |
| DXY | 100.89 | 61.76 | 24.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.62 | 24.14 | 22.8 | $38.00 | Neutral | 1.47 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.73B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 84.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.55 (5d: +4.2%)
- Brent Crude: $75.72 | Spread: $4.17
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.23/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.91
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.81
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.83 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.448 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.217 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.199 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,273,886.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,819,495.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.86 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $458.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $751.87)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.53%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.89
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,835B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,935B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,611B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,843 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.30% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.23/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.51 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=114299B
- [WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.56%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Jun): 4.09 vs Est. 4.19 (MISS) | Prev: 4.19
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Jun): -2.4% | Prev: 3.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.67 (β5.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.37 (β4.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.49 (β7.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] British Pound: Recovery tests key resistance against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-recovery-tests-key-resistance-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202607091728 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 17:28:05 Z
[2] Taiwan Dollar: Policy-driven flows temper losses against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/taiwan-dollar-policy-driven-flows-temper-losses-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202607091714 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 17:14:31 Z
[3] Forex Today: Geopolitics and Canadian jobs steal the show URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-geopolitics-and-canadian-jobs-steal-the-show-202607091710 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 17:10:30 Z
[4] United States 30-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 5.02% to 5.058% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-30-year-bond-auction-climbed-from-previous-502-to-5058-202607091704 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 17:04:30 Z
[5] South Korean Won: Asia outperformer on flows and BoK - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-asia-outperformer-on-flows-and-bok-societe-generale-202607091659 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 16:59:59 Z
[6] Chinese Yuan: Forecast band tightened as stability holds against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-forecast-band-tightened-as-stability-holds-against-us-dollar-ing-202607091643 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 16:43:42 Z
[7] Swiss Franc gains on Fed policy divisions, rising US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-on-fed-policy-divisions-rising-us-iran-tensions-202607091643 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 16:43:36 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran, Saudi foreign ministers discuss fallout from US attacks Time: 2026-07-09T17:31:32.870Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 131 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 35 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 35.0% of normal (3.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 285
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS520 (+940% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost