Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-09 11:50:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +4.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -1.1% neutral Β· real yield 2.30% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.18 normal, SPY/Oil -0.17 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 86/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 86 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $750.15 | 50 SMA $739.64 | 200 SMA $693.60 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.25
- QQQ: $721.92 | 50 SMA $712.62 | 200 SMA $636.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.56
- IWM: $297.14 | 50 SMA $287.78 | 200 SMA $261.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.97
- VIX: 16.11 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.547%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $750.15 | 46.33 | 66.5 | $745.25 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| QQQ | $721.92 | 43.88 | 84.0 | $710.56 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| IWM | $297.14 | 52.35 | 28.6 | $294.97 | Neutral | 0.70 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.11 | 52.74 | 52.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.23 |
| TNX | 45.47 | 65.63 | 41.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.91 | 32.47 | 40.3 | $370.96 | Neutral | 1.48 |
| DXY | 100.93 | 62.56 | 24.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.62 | 24.14 | 22.8 | $38.00 | Neutral | 1.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.73B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 77.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 71.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 51.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 48.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $72.22 (5d: +5.1%)
- Brent Crude: $76.85 | Spread: $4.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.95
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.93
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.829 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.424 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.178 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.165 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,204,651.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,728,381.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $295.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $750.15)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.93
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,835B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,935B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,611B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,593 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.30% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.82/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.32 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=114299B
- [WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Jun): β³ Pending
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.67 (β5.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.37 (β4.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.49 (β7.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] United States 4-Week Bill Auction up to 3.63% from previous 3.605% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-4-week-bill-auction-up-to-363-from-previous-3605-202607091532 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:32:27 Z
[2] South Korean Won: Oil-linked range view into BoK meeting - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-oil-linked-range-view-into-bok-meeting-commerzbank-202607091521 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:21:00 Z
[3] Visa breaks higher after completing A-B-C correction, wave five targets new highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/visa-breaks-higher-after-completing-a-b-c-correction-wave-five-targets-new-highs-202607091516 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:16:40 Z
[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains stuck in a bearish channel URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-remains-stuck-in-a-bearish-channel-202607091515 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:15:31 Z
[5] US Dollar: Tariff passthrough keeps inflation pressure alive - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-tariff-passthrough-keeps-inflation-pressure-alive-bny-202607091505 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:05:24 Z
[6] Australian Dollar rises as US Dollar softens despite geopolitical tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-as-us-dollar-softens-despite-geopolitical-tensions-202607091504 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:04:21 Z
[7] PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 earnings and revenues surpass estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pepsico-pep-q2-earnings-and-revenues-surpass-estimates-202607091454 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 14:54:50 Z
[8] Canadian Dollar: Sentiment improves as risks fade against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-sentiment-improves-as-risks-fade-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202607091449 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 14:49:04 Z
[9] British Pound elevates despite firm US claims URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-elevates-despite-firm-us-claims-202607091444 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 14:44:41 Z
[10] Record: Chinese investors pull $2.22 billion from Gold ETFs in June, the highest monthly outflow ever URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/record-chinese-investors-pull-222-billion-from-gold-etfs-in-june-the-highest-monthly-outflow-ever-202607091443 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 14:43:14 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iranian oil tankers rush out of Strait of Hormuz - CNN Time: 2026-07-09T15:24:43.931Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 131 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 360
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost