Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-09 09:02:51 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +4.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.24% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.12 normal, SPY/Oil -0.09 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 85/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 85 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $747.33 | 50 SMA $739.64 | 200 SMA $693.60 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.1
- QQQ: $718.36 | 50 SMA $712.62 | 200 SMA $636.77 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $700.97
- IWM: $294.85 | 50 SMA $287.78 | 200 SMA $261.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.95
- VIX: 16.76 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.573%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $747.33 | 46.33 | 66.5 | $745.10 | Neutral | 1.03 |
| QQQ | $718.36 | 43.88 | 84.0 | $700.97 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| IWM | $294.85 | 52.35 | 28.6 | $294.95 | Bearish | 1.92 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.76 | 52.74 | 52.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 45.73 | 65.63 | 41.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.36 | 32.47 | 40.3 | $370.96 | Bearish | 2.48 |
| DXY | 100.99 | 63.66 | 23.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.70 | 24.14 | 22.8 | $35.00 | Bearish | 1.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.73B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 79.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $73.87 (5d: +7.5%)
- Brent Crude: $78.61 | Spread: $4.74
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.73/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.60
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.812 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.418 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.12 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.087 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $653.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $747.33)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.99
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,835B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,935B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,611B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,663 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.24% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.73/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $112.21 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (747.76) reclaimed ZGL (745.10) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=114299B
- [WARNING] SPY (741.37) dropped below ZGL (747.62) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Jun): β³ Pending
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 218 (MISS) | Prev: 217
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,820 (MISS) | Prev: 1,806
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.67 (β5.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.37 (β4.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.49 (β7.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-215k-last-week-202607091234 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:34:36 Z
[2] United States Continuing Jobless Claims remains at 1.814M in June 26 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-remains-at-1814m-in-june-26-202607091232 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:32:13 Z
[3] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 222K to 218.75K in July 3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-fell-from-previous-222k-to-21875k-in-july-3-202607091230 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[4] United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (218K) in July 3: Actual (215K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-below-forecasts-218k-in-july-3-actual-215k-202607091230 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[5] New Zealand Dollar: Rate support constrained by Oil drag - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rate-support-constrained-by-oil-drag-ocbc-202607091227 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:27:40 Z
[6] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP hits fresh three-week highs past 1.3400 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-hits-fresh-three-week-highs-past-13400-202607091224 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:24:12 Z
[7] Aluminium: Price outlook shifts lower as market rebalances - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aluminium-price-outlook-shifts-lower-as-market-rebalances-td-securities-202607091215 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:15:41 Z
[8] Brent: Supply recovery meets weak China demand - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supply-recovery-meets-weak-china-demand-ing-202607091205 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:05:22 Z
[9] Mexico 12-Month Inflation below forecasts (3.52%) in June: Actual (3.37%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-12-month-inflation-below-forecasts-352-in-june-actual-337-202607091200 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:00:07 Z
[10] Mexico Headline Inflation below expectations (-0.13%) in June: Actual (-0.27%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-headline-inflation-below-expectations-013-in-june-actual-027-202607091200 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:00:05 Z
[11] Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.24%, below expectations (0.31%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-core-inflation-came-in-at-024-below-expectations-031-in-june-202607091200 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:00:03 Z
[12] Euro: Sideways trading outlook against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-sideways-trading-outlook-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202607091156 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:56:30 Z
[13] Oil: Strait of Hormuz risks keep prices supported - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-strait-of-hormuz-risks-keep-prices-supported-bny-202607091144 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:44:44 Z
[14] AI markets bounced despite war risk - Can it hold? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-markets-bounced-despite-war-risk-can-it-hold-202607091144 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:44:31 Z
[15] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound consolidates after hitting fresh all-time highs at 218.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-pound-consolidates-after-hitting-fresh-all-time-highs-at-21800-202607091142 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:42:05 Z
[16] Euro falls back as US Dollar recovers early losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-falls-back-as-us-dollar-recovers-early-losses-202607091140 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:40:02 Z
[17] US Dollar: Fed minutes flag supply-driven inflation risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-minutes-flag-supply-driven-inflation-risks-td-securities-202607091138 Published: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 11:38:11 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Qatar pauses LNG restart after tanker attack - Bloomberg Time: 2026-07-09T12:50:58.844Z
[2] Iran joint military command says Khamenei's killers will be punished Time: 2026-07-09T12:45:49.423Z
[BREAKING] [3] IRGC says three forces killed in strikes on southwestern Iran Time: 2026-07-09T12:40:43.764Z
[4] Only three fuel tankers seen transiting Strait of Hormuz - CBS Time: 2026-07-09T12:38:26.777Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 131 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 51 of 60 normal daily β 57.9% of normal
- Throughput: 30.1% of normal (3.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost