Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-07 15:32:02 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.431 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.13 put-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +7.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.26% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.82 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.10 normal, SPY/Oil -0.06 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.43 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.4% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 87/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 87 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.431) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.431; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.97 | 50 SMA $738.23 | 200 SMA $692.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.85
- QQQ: $708.61 | 50 SMA $710.50 | 200 SMA $635.59 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.0
- IWM: $295.98 | 50 SMA $287.03 | 200 SMA $261.05 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.48
- VIX: 16.29 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.529%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.97 | 56.04 | 84.0 | $745.85 | Neutral | 1.33 |
| QQQ | $708.61 | 50.43 | 100.0 | $716.00 | Bearish | 2.59 |
| IWM | $295.98 | 60.38 | 63.6 | $297.48 | Bearish | 2.11 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.29 | 46.46 | 57.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| TNX | 45.29 | 49.05 | 40.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.11 | 46.83 | 45.4 | $370.96 | Bearish | 1.98 |
| DXY | 101.09 | 69.64 | 30.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.15 | 36.65 | 27.1 | $42.50 | Neutral | 1.43 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.431
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.02B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 96.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 86.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 47.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $72.05 (5d: +3.7%)
- Brent Crude: $75.88 | Spread: $3.83
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.3600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.95/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.76
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.819 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.406 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.102 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.058 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,089,619.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,622,338.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $650.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $753 | Put Wall: $748 (Spot: $746.97)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.53%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.09
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,842B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,990B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,950B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,781B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,946 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.26% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.95/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.57 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (748.99) reclaimed ZGL (745.96) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (749.14) dropped below ZGL (750.42) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 24.30 | Prev: 30.80
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 21.00 | Prev: 24.30
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 1.4%
- Exports(May): 317.70 | Prev: 328.20
- Imports(May): 395.30 | Prev: 382.80
- NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.7% | Prev: 3.5%
- Trade Balance(May): -77.60 vs Est. -78.30 (BEAT) | Prev: -54.60
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (β2.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.48 (β6.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG remains bearish as 'evening star' forms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-remains-bearish-as-evening-star-forms-202607071918 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:18:10 Z
[2] Japanese Yen stays subdued below 161.90 as Fed caution limits Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-stays-subdued-below-16190-as-fed-caution-limits-dollar-weakness-202607071906 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:06:54 Z
[3] Chinese Yuan: PBoC strengthens Hong Kong hub and links - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-pboc-strengthens-hong-kong-hub-and-links-bny-202607071903 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:03:00 Z
[4] Gold stalls below $4,200 as inflation fears rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-stalls-below-4-200-as-inflation-fears-rise-202607071851 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 18:51:15 Z
[5] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD slips as Hormuz attacks revive USD demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-slips-as-hormuz-attacks-revive-usd-demand-202607071838 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 18:38:40 Z
[6] What SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut and SpaceX's Nasdaq 100 entry mean for investors URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/what-sk-hynixs-nasdaq-debut-and-spacexs-nasdaq-100-entry-mean-for-investors-202607071829 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 18:29:17 Z
[7] Canadian Dollar sees through its own record surplus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-sees-through-its-own-record-surplus-202607071826 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 18:26:28 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 129 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 27 of 60 normal daily β 45.0% of normal
- Throughput: 21.0% of normal (2.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 56
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost