Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-07 09:38:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.431 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.06 balanced |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +7.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 71% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.26% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.37 normal, SPY/TNX -0.03 normal, SPY/Oil +0.09 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.5% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.74% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 87/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 87 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.431) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.431; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth rising to 71% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $750.90 | 50 SMA $738.23 | 200 SMA $692.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.99
- QQQ: $715.34 | 50 SMA $710.50 | 200 SMA $635.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $722.56
- IWM: $299.63 | 50 SMA $287.03 | 200 SMA $261.05 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.47
- VIX: 15.83 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.501%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $750.90 | 56.04 | 84.0 | $745.99 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| QQQ | $715.34 | 50.43 | 100.0 | $722.56 | Bearish | 1.67 |
| IWM | $299.63 | 60.38 | 63.6 | $297.47 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.83 | 46.46 | 57.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| TNX | 45.01 βΌ | 49.05 | 40.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $382.69 | 46.83 | 45.4 | $370.96 | Neutral | 1.27 |
| DXY | 100.91 | 68.09 | 29.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.47 | 36.65 | 27.1 | $47.49 | Neutral | 1.14 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.431
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.02B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 96.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 88.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 76.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 65.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 26.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $69.69 (5d: +0.3%)
- Brent Crude: $73.19 | Spread: $3.50
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.79/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.04
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.69
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.805 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.366 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.031 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | 0.09 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 34,127.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 36,335.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.06 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $5.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $753 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $750.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.50%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.78 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,842B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,998B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,951B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,791B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,070 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.26% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.79/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $105.57 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B
- [INFO] SPY (745.74) reclaimed ZGL (742.49) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (743.23) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 24.30 | Prev: 30.80
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 21.00 | Prev: 24.30
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Exports(May): 317.70 | Prev: 328.20
- Imports(May): 395.30 | Prev: 382.80
- Trade Balance(May): -77.60 vs Est. -78.30 (BEAT) | Prev: -54.60
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (β2.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.48 (β6.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.51
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Canadian Dollar: Consolidation with stretched USD positioning - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-consolidation-with-stretched-usd-positioning-scotiabank-202607071317 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 13:17:11 Z
[2] United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-105.89B in May from previous $-105.8B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-trade-balance-declined-to-10589b-in-may-from-previous-1058b-202607071312 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 13:12:40 Z
[3] Bank of Canada: Policy seen on hold through 2026 - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-canada-policy-seen-on-hold-through-2026-rbc-202607071304 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 13:04:51 Z
[4] Polish Zloty: Dovish NBP tone risks downside - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-dovish-nbp-tone-risks-downside-ing-202607071255 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:55:44 Z
[5] United States Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5% (July 3) vs 10.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-115-july-3-vs-105-202607071255 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:55:00 Z
[6] Euro holds steady as traders assess Fed and ECB interest rate paths URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-steady-as-traders-assess-fed-and-ecb-interest-rate-paths-202607071251 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:51:22 Z
[7] Japanese Yen: Fiscal unease and BoJ path - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-fiscal-unease-and-boj-path-mufg-202607071246 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:46:03 Z
[8] Gold: Price dip seen limited as PBoC buying continues - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-dip-seen-limited-as-pboc-buying-continues-commerzbank-202607071237 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:37:11 Z
[9] United States Goods and Services Trade Balance above expectations ($-78B) in May: Actual ($-77.6B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-and-services-trade-balance-above-expectations-78b-in-may-actual-776b-202607071230 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:30:03 Z
[10] Canada Imports climbed from previous $72.44B to $72.86B in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-imports-climbed-from-previous-7244b-to-7286b-in-may-202607071230 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[11] Canada Exports up to $77.1B in May from previous $75.16B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-exports-up-to-771b-in-may-from-previous-7516b-202607071230 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[12] Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $4.24B above expectations ($2.7B) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-international-merchandise-trade-registered-at-424b-above-expectations-27b-in-may-202607071230 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:30:02 Z
[13] Euro: ECB support limited by spreads - NBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-support-limited-by-spreads-nbc-202607071228 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:28:01 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Trump says Meloni refusal to help on Hormuz soured ties Time: 2026-07-07T13:27:14.359Z
[2] Trump says Erdogan does not want Iran to have nuclear weapon Time: 2026-07-07T13:01:20.852Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 129 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 27 of 60 normal daily β 45.0% of normal
- Throughput: 26.2% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 56
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 5.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.2 billion/day economic cost