Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-07 06:00:53 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.431 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +7.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.26% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.03 normal, SPY/Oil +0.10 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.5% stable, MOVE 66 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.74% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 87/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 87 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.431) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.431; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $750.66 | 50 SMA $737.43 | 200 SMA $692.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.48
- QQQ: $720.27 | 50 SMA $709.15 | 200 SMA $634.93 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.9
- IWM: $299.08 | 50 SMA $286.58 | 200 SMA $260.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $277.5
- VIX: 15.57 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.479%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $750.66 | 54.60 | 83.0 | $742.48 | Bearish | 0.33 |
| QQQ | $720.27 | 48.64 | 100.0 | $710.90 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $299.08 | 62.00 | 68.5 | $277.50 | Neutral | 0.67 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.57 | 44.11 | 100.0 | $11.50 | Neutral | 1.18 |
| TNX | 44.79 | 52.51 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $381.44 | 43.77 | 44.7 | $372.55 | Bearish | 0.20 |
| DXY | 100.87 | 65.54 | 30.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.86 | 34.56 | 26.7 | $54.03 | Neutral | 1.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.431
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.02B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 77.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.94 (5d: -2.6%)
- Brent Crude: $72.43 | Spread: $3.49
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.3200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.13
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.71
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.807 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.365 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.025 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | 0.102 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.76
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,319,302.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,396,049.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $654.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $750.66)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.79 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,842B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,998B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,951B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,791B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,187 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.26% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.82/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $104.35 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=113404B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B
- [INFO] SPY (745.74) reclaimed ZGL (742.49) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (743.23) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.445 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.57%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Trade Balance(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (β2.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.48 (β6.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Canadian Dollar: Weakness extends against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakness-extends-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202607070939 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:39:38 Z
[2] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607070932 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:32:27 Z
[3] Japanese Yen: High bar for hawkish BoJ repricing - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-high-bar-for-hawkish-boj-repricing-bbh-202607070920 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:20:55 Z
[4] Indian Rupee bounces back as oil prices remain broadly lower URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-clings-to-losses-as-oil-prices-rebound-fomc-minutes-eyed-202607070549 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:16:35 Z
[5] United States Dollar Index firms as Hormuz tensions boost safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-firms-as-hormuz-tensions-boost-safe-haven-demand-202607070911 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:11:41 Z
[6] China turns out Gold buyer again URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-turns-out-gold-buyer-again-202607070903 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:03:53 Z
[7] Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) declined to 426.2B in June from previous 430.1B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-foreign-reserves-mom-declined-to-4262b-in-june-from-previous-4301b-202607070903 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:03:11 Z
[8] Hungarian Forint: Dovish inflation path supports more cuts - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-dovish-inflation-path-supports-more-cuts-ing-202607070859 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:59:52 Z
[9] WTI Price Forecast: More downside is likely if Oil falls below $67 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-more-downside-is-likely-if-oil-falls-below-67-202607070855 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:55:43 Z
[10] Gold remains depressed near daily low amid rising US bond yields, USD uptick URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-reviving-inflation-fears-outweigh-receding-fed-rate-hike-bets-and-soft-usd-202607070445 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:54:18 Z
[11] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD drifts below $61.00 as markets turn cautious URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-drifts-below-6100-as-markets-turn-cautious-202607070852 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:52:10 Z
[12] Dow Jones futures defies tech sell-off as capital rotates to value sectors URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-defies-tech-sell-off-as-capital-rotates-to-value-sectors-202607070851 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:51:37 Z
[13] Spain 12-Month Letras Auction: 2.5% vs previous 2.543% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-12-month-letras-auction-25-vs-previous-2543-202607070840 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:40:27 Z
[14] Spain 6-Month Letras Auction climbed from previous 2.376% to 2.385% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-6-month-letras-auction-climbed-from-previous-2376-to-2385-202607070840 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:40:21 Z
[15] Australian Dollar: Upside risks grow toward 0.6980 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-upside-risks-grow-toward-06980-against-us-dollar-uob-202607070837 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:37:14 Z
[16] Canadian Dollar: Loonie constrained near term - NBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-loonie-constrained-near-term-nbc-202607070823 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:23:46 Z
[17] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Resistance at 0.8075 remains in focus as dips find buyers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-resistance-at-08075-remains-in-focus-as-dips-find-buyers-202607070808 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:08:23 Z
[18] Why the New Zealand Dollar may not benefit from expected RBNZ rate hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/why-the-new-zealand-dollar-may-not-benefit-from-expected-rbnz-rate-hike-202607070807 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:07:23 Z
[19] US Dollar: Benign FX risk score with hawkish fed pricing - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-benign-fx-risk-score-with-hawkish-fed-pricing-dbs-202607070804 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:04:13 Z
[20] China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM) came in at $3.416T, below expectations ($3.44T) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-foreign-exchange-reserves-mom-came-in-at-3416t-below-expectations-344t-in-june-202607070803 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:03:09 Z
[21] Forex Today: Markets cling to a cautious stance after choppy action to start week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-markets-cling-to-a-cautious-stance-after-choppy-action-to-start-week-202607070801 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:01:21 Z
[22] Euro: Le Pen ruling seen as low impact - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-le-pen-ruling-seen-as-low-impact-ing-202607070753 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 07:53:10 Z
[23] Canadian Dollar weakens despite higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-despite-higher-oil-prices-202607070751 Published: Tue, 07 Jul 2026 07:51:47 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] IRGC Quds Force chief says Khamenei funeral in Iraq will deepen anti-US revenge drive Time: 2026-07-07T09:47:10.584Z
[BREAKING] [2] Saudi-flagged tanker damaged near Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-07-07T09:18:37.371Z
[3] Iran war gives European chemical firms brief debt window - Bloomberg Time: 2026-07-07T09:02:45.033Z
[4] Video: Khamenei's body transferred to the central city of Qom Time: 2026-07-07T08:30:17.975Z
[5] Revenge for Khamenei killing is Islamic Republic's strategy, lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-07T08:26:25.647Z
[6] Video: $100M Trump bounty banner unveiled in Qom Time: 2026-07-07T07:44:34.402Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 129 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 27 of 60 normal daily β 32.1% of normal
- Throughput: 32.1% of normal (3.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 340
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost