Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-06 20:01:23 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.431 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced
Gamma	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +7.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 69% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +3.5% growth optimism · real yield 2.26% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.79 normal, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.05 normal, SPY/Oil +0.14 normal
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 145 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.4% stable, MOVE 66 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.74% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 87/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 87 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.431) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.431 (institutional accumulation increasing); live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth rising to 69% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $751.35 | 50 SMA $737.43 | 200 SMA $692.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.48
QQQ: $721.30 | 50 SMA $709.15 | 200 SMA $634.93 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.9
IWM: $299.35 | 50 SMA $286.58 | 200 SMA $260.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $277.5
VIX: 15.57 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.479%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$751.35	54.60	83.0	$742.48	Bearish	0.33
QQQ	$721.30	48.64	100.0	$710.90	Neutral	0.65
IWM	$299.35	62.00	68.5	$277.50	Neutral	0.67

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.57	44.11	100.0	$11.50	Neutral	1.18
TNX	44.79	52.51	42.8	-	-	-
GLD	$382.04	43.77	44.7	$372.55	Bearish	0.20
DXY	100.86	65.37	30.6	-	-	-
SLV	$56.09	34.56	26.7	$54.03	Neutral	1.15

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.431
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.02B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.94%
2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 68.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Health Care	92.6%	0/0
Utilities	86.7%	0/0
Financials	85.1%	0/0
Industrials	77.6%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Communication Services	35.0%	0/0
Energy	21.1%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $68.80 (5d: -2.8%)
Brent Crude: $72.23 | Spread: $3.43
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
Heating Oil: $3.3000/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.68/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $53.13
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.71

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.788	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.212	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.051	normal
SPY / Oil	0.137	normal

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.76
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,319,302.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,396,049.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $654.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $752 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $751.35)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -37,592 contracts (Z +2.26, as of 2026-06-30)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.48%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.79 (Normal)
DXY: 100.86
Growth vs Value: 0.96
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.7B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,842B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,002B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,947B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,791B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,029 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] SKEW at 145 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.26% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.68/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $104.35 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: DTM — promotion-ready (34d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 50% (n=327)).
[INFO] Screener: HGV — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 50% (n=720)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: FIVE — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 50% (n=720)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: FBIN — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 50% (n=720)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.57%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(Jun): 54.0 vs Est. 54.2 (MISS) | Prev: 54.5
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices(Jun): 67.7 vs Est. 67.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 71.3
S&P Global Services PMI(Jun): 51.2 vs Est. 51.3 (MISS) | Prev: 51.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment(Jun): 51.2 vs Est. 48.2 (BEAT) | Prev: 47.9
S&P Global Composite PMI(Jun): 51.9 vs Est. 52.2 (MISS) | Prev: 51.5

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (↑2.8% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.48 (↑6.1% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (3):

[1] Japan JP Foreign Reserves fell from previous $1305.9B to $1B in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jp-foreign-reserves-fell-from-previous-13059b-to-1b-in-june-202607062350 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 23:50:01 Z

[2] Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) registered at -0.3% above expectations (-2.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-overall-household-spending-yoy-registered-at-03-above-expectations-25-in-may-202607062330 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 23:30:02 Z

[3] Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.2% below forecasts (3.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-labor-cash-earnings-yoy-came-in-at-32-below-forecasts-34-in-may-202607062330 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 23:30:01 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Saudi Arabia weighs GCC-Iran reconciliation summit - Saudi outlet Time: 2026-07-06T23:46:13.602Z

[2] US official says Netanyahu's Iran war promises fell short - Axios Time: 2026-07-06T23:30:04.361Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 128 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily — 41.7% of normal
Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 340
Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost