Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-05 22:00:43 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.409 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.89 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.2B near the gamma flip / balanced, GEX +6.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.25% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.43 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil +0.13 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 16 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 85/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 85 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.409) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.409; live dealer gamma negative at -0.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth falling to 67% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.74 | 50 SMA $737.43 | 200 SMA $692.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.49
- QQQ: $714.18 | 50 SMA $709.15 | 200 SMA $634.93 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.96
- IWM: $297.34 | 50 SMA $286.58 | 200 SMA $260.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.49
- VIX: 15.81 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.485%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.74 | 54.60 | 83.0 | $742.49 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| QQQ | $714.18 | 48.64 | 100.0 | $720.96 | Bearish | 1.90 |
| IWM | $297.34 | 62.00 | 68.5 | $297.49 | Bearish | 1.58 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.81 | 44.11 | 100.0 | $11.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 44.85 | 52.51 | 42.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.50 | 43.77 | 44.7 | $370.88 | Bearish | 0.46 |
| DXY | 100.92 | 66.00 | 30.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.20 | 34.56 | 26.7 | $47.28 | Neutral | 1.12 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.409
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.86B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.58 (5d: -3.1%)
- Brent Crude: $71.82 | Spread: $3.24
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.62/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.22
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.858 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.428 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.141 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | 0.13 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.89 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $802.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $745.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.92
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,842B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,996B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,954B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,792B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,537 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.409) despite calm surface (VIX 15.8, breadth 67%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.25% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.62/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $103.98 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #5): max=159186B avg=112890B
- [INFO] SPY (745.74) reclaimed ZGL (742.49) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (743.23) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Composite PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (β2.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.48 (β6.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] British Pound flat lines around mid-1.3300s vs USD amid Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-flat-lines-around-mid-13300s-vs-usd-amid-iran-tensions-202607060153 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:53:19 Z
[2] Australia ANZ Job Advertisements declined to -0.2% in June from previous 1.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-anz-job-advertisements-declined-to-02-in-june-from-previous-18-202607060132 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:32:36 Z
[3] Japanese Yen weakens under high import costs despite JGB yield hitting 30-year highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-under-high-import-costs-despite-jgb-yield-hitting-30-year-highs-202607060123 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:23:03 Z
[4] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8066 vs. 6.8047 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68066-vs-68047-previous-202607060115 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:15:27 Z
[5] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) fell from previous 4.4% to 3.9% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-yoy-fell-from-previous-44-to-39-in-june-202607060112 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:12:31 Z
[6] New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price fell from previous 0.7% to -1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-anz-commodity-price-fell-from-previous-07-to-1-in-june-202607060111 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:11:15 Z
[7] Euro consolidates below mid-1.1400s as Hormuz risks support safe-haven USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-consolidates-below-mid-11400s-as-hormuz-risks-support-safe-haven-usd-202607060108 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:08:10 Z
[8] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM): -0.4% (June) vs previous -0.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-mom-04-june-vs-previous-03-202607060107 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:07:31 Z
[9] Australian Dollar declines following TD-MI Inflation Gauge data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-declines-following-td-mi-inflation-gauge-data-202607060106 Published: Mon, 06 Jul 2026 01:06:50 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 127 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 39 of 60 normal daily β 65.0% of normal
- Throughput: 30.0% of normal (3.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS195 (+290% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost