Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-02 20:00:57 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.409 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.89 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -1.8B short-gamma / vol-amplifying β dealer gamma regime flipping, GEX +6.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.25% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.01 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.50 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 16 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.74% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.409) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.409 (institutional buying fading); live dealer gamma negative at -1.8B (vol-amplifying); breadth rising to 68% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.27 | 50 SMA $736.61 | 200 SMA $691.87 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.92
- QQQ: $713.54 | 50 SMA $707.78 | 200 SMA $634.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.91
- IWM: $297.13 | 50 SMA $286.12 | 200 SMA $260.45 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.23
- VIX: 16.15 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.485%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.27 | 61.59 | 83.1 | $745.92 | Neutral | 1.45 |
| QQQ | $713.54 | 58.91 | 100.0 | $713.91 | Bearish | 2.40 |
| IWM | $297.13 | 73.66 | 68.8 | $299.23 | Bearish | 2.73 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.15 | 40.04 | 99.9 | $11.50 | Neutral | 0.60 |
| TNX | 44.85 | 43.39 | 43.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.74 | 47.15 | 42.3 | $370.93 | Bearish | 0.35 |
| DXY | 100.85 | 63.31 | 32.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.18 | 40.05 | 25.8 | $43.46 | Bearish | 0.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.409
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.86B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.35% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 92.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 73.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 64.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.47 (5d: -1.1%)
- Brent Crude: $71.54 | Spread: $3.07
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.81/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.22
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.863 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.349 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.15 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.013 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 5,686,629.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,081,564.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.89 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $802.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $745.27)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.85
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6724.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,842B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,994B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,120B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,956B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,485 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.409) despite calm surface (VIX 16.1, breadth 68%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.25% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.81/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $103.98 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (743.23) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (743.26) reclaimed ZGL (725.59) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=112383B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(Jun): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 219 (MISS) | Prev: 216
- Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 57 vs Est. 114 (MISS) | Prev: 129
- Unemployment Rate(Jun): 4.2% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.4%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,810 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,812
- Factory Orders(MoM)(May): -1.3% vs Est. -1.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 5.3%
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,725 | Prev: 6,736
- Participation Rate(Jun): 61.5% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 49 vs Est. 110 (MISS) | Prev: 97
- U6 Unemployment Rate(Jun): 7.9% | Prev: 8.1%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (β2.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Chinese Yuan: Range trading after weakness fades against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-range-trading-after-weakness-fades-against-us-dollar-uob-202607022334 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 23:34:00 Z
[2] Iran vows "decisive response" to any US "miscalculation" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-vows-decisive-response-to-any-us-miscalculation-202607022333 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 23:33:27 Z
[3] Australian Dollar back above the growth line, still just a passenger URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-back-above-the-growth-line-still-just-a-passenger-202607022331 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 23:31:43 Z
[4] Gold gains momentum above $4,100 after weak US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-gains-momentum-above-4-100-after-weak-us-nfp-data-202607022316 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 23:16:29 Z
[5] Australia S&P Global Services PMI came in at 50.5, above forecasts (49.9) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-services-pmi-came-in-at-505-above-forecasts-499-in-june-202607022300 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 23:00:01 Z
[6] Australia S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 50.4, above expectations (49.8) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-composite-pmi-came-in-at-504-above-expectations-498-in-june-202607022300 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 23:00:01 Z
[7] South Korean Won: Export strength fails to stop gains - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-export-strength-fails-to-stop-gains-societe-generale-202607022246 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 22:46:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US struck Iran with 1,200 missiles and bombs but failed to break morale Time: 2026-07-02T23:23:10.388Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 124 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 43 of 60 normal daily β 52.5% of normal
- Throughput: 46.6% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 268
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS115 (+130% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost