Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-02 12:15:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -2.2B short-gamma / vol-amplifying but intraday flow dampening β stress easing, GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.32 normal, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.02 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 155 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.5% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.74% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β dark pool, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.445) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.445; live dealer gamma negative at -2.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $744.46 | 50 SMA $736.61 | 200 SMA $691.87 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.85
- QQQ: $715.17 | 50 SMA $707.78 | 200 SMA $634.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $727.98
- IWM: $297.74 | 50 SMA $286.12 | 200 SMA $260.45 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.96
- VIX: 16.58 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.467%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $744.46 | 61.59 | 83.1 | $745.85 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| QQQ | $715.17 | 58.91 | 100.0 | $727.98 | Bearish | 2.52 |
| IWM | $297.74 | 73.66 | 68.8 | $296.96 | Neutral | 1.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.58 | 40.04 | 99.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 44.67 | 43.39 | 43.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.37 | 47.15 | 42.3 | $370.73 | Bearish | 0.24 |
| DXY | 100.76 | 61.83 | 34.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.17 | 40.05 | 25.8 | $53.76 | Bearish | 0.48 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.97B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 90.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 73.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $67.78 (5d: -2.1%)
- Brent Crude: $70.82 | Spread: $3.04
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.66/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.10
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.867 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.315 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.149 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.018 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,094,135.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,685,017.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $430.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $744.46)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.47%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.76
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,816B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,965B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,090B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,871B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,532 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 155 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.66/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $103.34 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (745.56) dropped below ZGL (745.85) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (745.85) reclaimed ZGL (733.03) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=112383B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.445 β institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.52%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(Jun): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 219 (MISS) | Prev: 216
- Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 57 vs Est. 114 (MISS) | Prev: 129
- Unemployment Rate(Jun): 4.2% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.4%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,810 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,812
- Factory Orders(MoM)(May): -1.3% vs Est. -1.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 5.3%
- Participation Rate(Jun): 61.5% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 49 vs Est. 110 (MISS) | Prev: 97
- U6 Unemployment Rate(Jun): 7.9% | Prev: 8.1%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.12 (β2.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US envoy tells UN Trump's patience with Iran 'not unlimited' Time: 2026-07-02T16:02:13.695Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 124 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 35 of 60 normal daily β 58.3% of normal
- Throughput: 35.9% of normal (3.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 380
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 21.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost