Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-02 10:59:28 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.80 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma +3.8B long-gamma / vol-dampening but intraday flow amplifying β support eroding, GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.37 normal, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.01 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 155 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.33 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.5% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 86/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 86 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.445) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.445; live dealer gamma positive at 3.8B (vol-dampening); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $747.43 | 50 SMA $736.61 | 200 SMA $691.87 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $726.05
- QQQ: $719.29 | 50 SMA $707.78 | 200 SMA $634.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $726.24
- IWM: $298.55 | 50 SMA $286.12 | 200 SMA $260.45 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.09
- VIX: 16.25 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.463%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $747.43 | 61.59 | 83.1 | $726.05 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| QQQ | $719.29 | 58.91 | 100.0 | $726.24 | Neutral | 1.45 |
| IWM | $298.55 | 73.66 | 68.8 | $299.09 | Neutral | 1.09 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.25 | 40.04 | 99.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.16 |
| TNX | 44.63 | 43.39 | 43.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.84 | 47.15 | 42.3 | $370.93 | Bearish | 0.26 |
| DXY | 100.82 | 62.73 | 32.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.48 | 40.05 | 25.8 | $53.77 | Neutral | 0.50 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.97B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 80.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 79.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $67.75 (5d: -2.1%)
- Brent Crude: $70.86 | Spread: $3.11
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.85/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.28
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.41
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.867 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.372 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.154 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.011 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,018,481.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,609,945.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $271.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $747.43)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -10.9% (as of 2026-07-01)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.82
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,816B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,965B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,090B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,871B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,659 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 155 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $56.85/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $102.81 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (749.29) reclaimed ZGL (745.87) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=112383B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.445 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(Jun): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 219 (MISS) | Prev: 216
- Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 57 vs Est. 114 (MISS) | Prev: 129
- Unemployment Rate(Jun): 4.2% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.4%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,810 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,812
- Factory Orders(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- Participation Rate(Jun): 61.5% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 49 vs Est. 110 (MISS) | Prev: 97
- U6 Unemployment Rate(Jun): 7.9% | Prev: 8.1%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.04 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (81B) in June 26: Actual (87B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-natural-gas-storage-change-above-expectations-81b-in-june-26-actual-87b-202607021430 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:30:02 Z
[2] Euro hits a nine-day high after softer-than-expected US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hits-a-nine-day-high-as-softer-than-expected-us-nfp-weighs-on-the-greenback-202607021429 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:29:55 Z
[3] BoE's Mann: Activist move can bring inflation expectations and outcomes toward 2% target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-mann-activist-move-can-bring-inflation-expectations-and-outcomes-toward-2-target-202607021429 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:29:53 Z
[4] Thailand: Narrow rebound, steady BoT rate - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/thailand-narrow-rebound-steady-bot-rate-uob-202607021427 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:27:10 Z
[5] Central banks: Framework guidance shift reshapes analysis - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/central-banks-framework-guidance-shift-reshapes-analysis-rabobank-202607021408 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:08:42 Z
[6] United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-1.8%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-factory-orders-mom-came-in-at-13-above-expectations-18-in-may-202607021400 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:00:01 Z
[7] Mexico: USMCA review cycle extends uncertainty - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-usmca-review-cycle-extends-uncertainty-societe-generale-202607021353 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:53:55 Z
[8] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ governance and housing signals - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-governance-and-housing-signals-bny-202607021339 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:39:15 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 124 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.4% of normal (0.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 380
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS467 (+834% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost