Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-02 09:57:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.49 call-heavy |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma +3.8B long-gamma / vol-dampening but intraday flow amplifying β support eroding, GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.46 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil +0.01 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 155 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.49 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.5% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.445) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.445; live dealer gamma positive at 3.8B (vol-dampening); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $750.25 | 50 SMA $736.61 | 200 SMA $691.87 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.89
- QQQ: $728.54 | 50 SMA $707.78 | 200 SMA $634.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $726.19
- IWM: $301.70 | 50 SMA $286.12 | 200 SMA $260.45 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $299.07
- VIX: 15.92 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.477%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $750.25 | 61.59 | 83.1 | $745.89 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| QQQ | $728.54 | 58.91 | 100.0 | $726.19 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| IWM | $301.70 | 73.66 | 68.8 | $299.07 | Bearish | 0.43 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.92 | 40.04 | 99.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.20 |
| TNX | 44.77 | 43.39 | 43.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $379.81 | 47.15 | 42.3 | $370.72 | Bearish | 0.26 |
| DXY | 100.73 | 61.36 | 35.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.97 | 40.05 | 25.8 | $53.83 | Neutral | 0.52 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.97B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 80.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 79.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $67.90 (5d: -1.9%)
- Brent Crude: $70.98 | Spread: $3.08
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.46
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.47
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.87 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.458 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.143 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | 0.012 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 772,218.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 381,012.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.49 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $86.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $750.25)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.73
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.20%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,816B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,965B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,090B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,871B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,659 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 155 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $57.82/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $102.98 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (749.29) reclaimed ZGL (745.87) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=112383B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.445 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(Jun): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 219 (MISS) | Prev: 216
- Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 57 vs Est. 114 (MISS) | Prev: 129
- Unemployment Rate(Jun): 4.2% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(Jun): 3.5% vs Est. 3.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.4%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,814 vs Est. 1,810 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,812
- Factory Orders(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- Participation Rate(Jun): 61.5% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(Jun): 49 vs Est. 110 (MISS) | Prev: 97
- U6 Unemployment Rate(Jun): 7.9% | Prev: 8.1%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.61 (β4.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $14.04 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Canadian Dollar gains as weaker US jobs data pressure US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-as-weaker-us-jobs-data-pressure-us-dollar-202607021336 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:36:13 Z
[2] Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 53 in June from previous 52.9 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-up-to-53-in-june-from-previous-529-202607021330 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:30:02 Z
[3] Gold climbs as weak US NFP sends the US Dollar to a two-week low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/4-000-gold-defends-key-support-as-traders-await-us-nfp-202607021112 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:22:15 Z
[4] US Dollar: Softer jobs and inflation outlook weigh on rate expectations - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-jobs-and-inflation-outlook-weigh-on-rate-expectations-commerzbank-202607021322 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:22:07 Z
[5] Eurozone: Minimum reserves debate reshapes liquidity - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-minimum-reserves-debate-reshapes-liquidity-ing-202607021302 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:02:32 Z
[6] Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $743.8B to $715.2B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-central-bank-reserves-dipped-from-previous-7438b-to-7152b-202607021301 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:01:01 Z
[7] Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 51 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-manufacturing-pmi-513-june-vs-51-202607021300 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:00:22 Z
[8] Swiss Franc gains as disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls pressure the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-as-disappointing-us-nonfarm-payrolls-pressure-the-us-dollar-202607021257 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:57:12 Z
[9] Fed's Daly: There is a scenario where Fed has to fight inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-daly-there-is-a-scenario-where-fed-has-to-fight-inflation-202607021246 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:46:18 Z
[10] Germany: Bureaucracy cuts and tax tweaks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-bureaucracy-cuts-and-tax-tweaks-commerzbank-202607021244 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:44:36 Z
[11] Australian Dollar weakens after trade deficit, Japanese Yen lifted by intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-weakens-after-trade-deficit-japanese-yen-lifted-by-intervention-risks-202607021243 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:43:51 Z
[12] United States Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-215k-last-week-202607021239 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:39:35 Z
[13] Breaking: US Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 57K in June vs. 110K expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nonfarm-payrolls-set-to-grow-by-over-100k-in-june-reinforcing-bets-of-upcoming-fed-rate-hikes-202607020500 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:38:39 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 124 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 5.4% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $71.59 (+2.04%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost