Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-01 22:00:53 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.445 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 0.90 balanced |
| Gamma | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | live dealer gamma -0.1B near the gamma flip / balanced β dealer gamma regime flipping, GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.01 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 155 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.445) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.445 (institutional buying fading); live dealer gamma negative at -0.1B (vol-amplifying); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.03 | 50 SMA $735.87 | 200 SMA $691.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.58
- QQQ: $725.63 | 50 SMA $706.22 | 200 SMA $633.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $724.07
- IWM: $298.93 | 50 SMA $285.68 | 200 SMA $260.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.76
- VIX: 16.59 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.475%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.03 | 54.94 | 83.4 | $745.58 | Neutral | 1.04 |
| QQQ | $725.63 | 57.96 | 100.0 | $724.07 | Bearish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $298.93 | 70.13 | 69.1 | $298.76 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.59 | 32.98 | 100.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| TNX | 44.75 | 38.15 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $370.20 | 36.65 | 42.1 | $346.45 | Bearish | 1.70 |
| DXY | 101.40 | 72.15 | 23.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.59 | 37.26 | 25.7 | $53.40 | Neutral | 1.05 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.97B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 76.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 74.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 51.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.09 (5d: -5.3%)
- Brent Crude: $71.14 | Spread: $3.05
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.31/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $52.81
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.867 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.151 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.015 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.56
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,592,132.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,120,357.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.90 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $746 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $745.03)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.47%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.77 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.40
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,816B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,978B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,081B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,874B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $60,079 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 155 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $59.31/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $103.27 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.445 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] Screener: BF-B β promotion-ready (15d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 38% (n=2443)).
- [WARNING] SPY (745.98) dropped below ZGL (746.10) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.53%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Jun): 98 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 122
- Crude Oil Inventories: -3.775 vs Est. -2.900 (MISS) | Prev: -6.088
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun): 53.3 vs Est. 53.8 (MISS) | Prev: 54.0
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(Jun): 73.0 vs Est. 77.7 (MISS) | Prev: 82.1
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): 53.9 vs Est. 55.7 (MISS) | Prev: 55.1
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 1.2% vs Est. 2.5% (MISS) | Prev: 2.5%
- Construction Spending(MoM)(May): 0.1% vs Est. 0.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.709 | Prev: -1.077
- ISM Manufacturing Employment(Jun): 49.7 | Prev: 48.6
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.95 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Australia's Trade Balance turns negative in May: What 3,018M deficit means for AUD/USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australias-trade-balance-turns-negative-in-may-what-3-018m-deficit-means-for-aud-usd-202607020132 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:32:38 Z
[2] Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at -3018M below forecasts (2200M) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-trade-balance-mom-came-in-at-3018m-below-forecasts-2200m-in-may-202607020132 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:32:32 Z
[3] Australia Exports (MoM) declined to -6.9% in May from previous 7.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-exports-mom-declined-to-69-in-may-from-previous-72-202607020131 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:31:21 Z
[4] Australia Imports (MoM) increased to 2.6% in May from previous 0.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-imports-mom-increased-to-26-in-may-from-previous-08-202607020130 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:30:38 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar languishes near YTD low as USD bulls keenly await US NFP report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-languishes-near-ytd-low-as-usd-bulls-keenly-await-us-nfp-report-202607020121 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:21:26 Z
[6] Japanese Yen flatlines near 162.50 ahead of US employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-flatlines-near-16250-ahead-of-us-employment-data-202607020116 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:16:34 Z
[7] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8088 vs. 6.8067 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68088-vs-68067-previous-202607020115 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:15:26 Z
[8] WTI slips below $68.00 as supply concerns ease URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-slips-below-6800-as-supply-concerns-ease-202607020101 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 01:01:42 Z
[9] Euro nudges higher above 1.1350 on softer Fed stance, traders await US jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-nudges-higher-above-11350-on-softer-fed-stance-traders-await-us-jobs-data-202607020029 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:29:41 Z
[10] Japan Monetary Base (YoY) registered at -13.7%, below expectations (-10%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-monetary-base-yoy-registered-at-137-below-expectations-10-in-june-202607020018 Published: Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:18:05 Z
[11] Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous Β₯479.4B to Β₯-1B in June 26 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-foreign-investment-in-japan-stocks-dipped-from-previous-y4794b-to-y-1b-in-june-26-202607012350 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 23:50:04 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US B-52 force leaves UK as Iran talks continue - report Time: 2026-07-02T01:39:24.266Z
[2] US-Iran war leaves everyone worse off, lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-02T00:47:58.671Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 123 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 13.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost