Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-01 12:45:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (8 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.79 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma +11.3B long-gamma / vol-dampening, flow dampening, GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.10 normal, SPY/Oil -0.05 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.47 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% benign, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 90/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; live dealer gamma positive at 11.3B (vol-dampening); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.31 | 50 SMA $735.87 | 200 SMA $691.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.0
- QQQ: $728.30 | 50 SMA $706.22 | 200 SMA $633.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $722.19
- IWM: $301.91 | 50 SMA $285.68 | 200 SMA $260.15 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $298.73
- VIX: 16.05 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.465%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.31 | 54.94 | 83.4 | $746.00 | Neutral | 0.51 |
| QQQ | $728.30 | 57.96 | 100.0 | $722.19 | Neutral | 0.84 |
| IWM | $301.91 | 70.13 | 69.1 | $298.73 | Bearish | 0.38 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.05 | 32.98 | 100.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| TNX | 44.65 | 38.15 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.00 | 36.65 | 42.1 | $369.29 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| DXY | 101.35 | 71.70 | 23.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.41 | 37.26 | 25.7 | $42.09 | Neutral | 0.73 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 79.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 76.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 51.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 10.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.20 (5d: -5.2%)
- Brent Crude: $71.24 | Spread: $3.04
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.92/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.09
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.61
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.868 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.384 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.099 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.046 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,770,063.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,184,532.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.79 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $370.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $748.31)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.75 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.35
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $26.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,790B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,981B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,081B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,851B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $60,025 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 66%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.92/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $103.71 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (746.05) reclaimed ZGL (746.00) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (745.20) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=111750B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Jun): 98 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 122
- Crude Oil Inventories: -3.775 vs Est. -2.900 (MISS) | Prev: -6.088
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun): 53.3 vs Est. 53.8 (MISS) | Prev: 54.0
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(Jun): 73.0 vs Est. 77.7 (MISS) | Prev: 82.1
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): 53.9 vs Est. 55.7 (MISS) | Prev: 55.1
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(May): 0.1% vs Est. 0.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.709 | Prev: -1.077
- ISM Manufacturing Employment(Jun): 49.7 | Prev: 48.6
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.95 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] WTI extends losses as recovering Hormuz flows, OPEC+ supply outlook weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-extends-losses-as-recovering-hormuz-flows-opec-supply-outlook-weigh-202607011628 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:28:35 Z
[2] Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/kevin-warsh-offers-no-policy-clues-why-markets-still-got-their-answer-202607011626 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:26:54 Z
[3] Dow Jones Industrial Average tops records on borrowed strength URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-tops-records-on-borrowed-strength-202607011606 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:06:57 Z
[4] Russia Unemployment Rate down to 2.1% in May from previous 2.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-unemployment-rate-down-to-21-in-may-from-previous-22-202607011601 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:01:07 Z
[5] British Pound climbs on soft US data despite Warsh's hawkish tilt URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-climbs-on-soft-us-data-despite-warshs-hawkish-tilt-202607011546 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 15:46:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Shipping monitor says ship aground near Hormuz is Shamkhani-linked tanker Time: 2026-07-01T16:31:19.344Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 123 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS215 (+330% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost