Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-01 10:54:29 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (8 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.84 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	live dealer gamma +2.6B long-gamma / vol-dampening, flow dampening, GEX +5.0B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +4.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.16% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 normal, SPY/TNX -0.13 normal, SPY/Oil -0.03 normal
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 150 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 67 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.504 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 90/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; live dealer gamma positive at 2.6B (vol-dampening); breadth rising to 65% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $746.89 | 50 SMA $735.87 | 200 SMA $691.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.0
QQQ: $728.85 | 50 SMA $706.22 | 200 SMA $633.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $722.2
IWM: $300.87 | 50 SMA $285.68 | 200 SMA $260.15 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $298.54
VIX: 16.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.465%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$746.89	54.94	83.4	$746.00	Neutral	0.67
QQQ	$728.85	57.96	100.0	$722.20	Neutral	0.85
IWM	$300.87	70.13	69.1	$298.54	Neutral	0.52

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.38	32.98	100.0	$10.50	Neutral	0.99
TNX	44.65	38.15	37.8	-	-	-
GLD	$375.38	36.65	42.1	$369.32	Neutral	0.53
DXY	101.27	71.06	23.6	-	-	-
SLV	$54.51	37.26	25.7	$47.48	Neutral	0.76

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.95%
2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 488
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Industrials	80.3%	0/0
Health Care	76.9%	0/0
Real Estate	74.1%	0/0
Financials	73.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	60.6%	0/0
Materials	52.2%	0/0
Technology	50.0%	0/0
Energy	21.1%	0/0
Communication Services	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $68.63 (5d: -4.6%)
Brent Crude: $71.75 | Spread: $3.12
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9300/gal
Heating Oil: $3.2400/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.77/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $52.67
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.55

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.867	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.398	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.134	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.027	normal

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,489,468.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,247,184.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.84 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $204.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $736 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $746.89)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.46%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
DXY: 101.27
Growth vs Value: 0.98
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $26.9B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,790B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,981B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,081B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,851B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $58,670 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] SKEW at 150 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.77/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $103.67 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (746.05) reclaimed ZGL (746.00) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (745.20) dropped below ZGL (745.90) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=111750B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.52%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Jun): 98 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 122
Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun): ⏳ Pending
ISM Manufacturing Prices(Jun): ⏳ Pending
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): ⏳ Pending
Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
Construction Spending(MoM)(May): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (↑2.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.95 (↑1.5% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (19):

[1] United Kingdom: Balanced inflation and politics risk - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-balanced-inflation-and-politics-risk-hsbc-202607011431 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:31:52 Z

[2] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at -3.775M above expectations (-5.1M) in June 26 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-registered-at-3775m-above-expectations-51m-in-june-26-202607011430 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:30:02 Z

[3] Eurozone: Price pressures keep ECB on alert - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-price-pressures-keep-ecb-on-alert-commerzbank-202607011419 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:19:48 Z

[4] Johnson & Johnson flashback update: Wave five extension in progress toward new highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/johnson-johnson-flashback-update-wave-five-extension-in-progress-toward-new-highs-202607011419 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:19:42 Z

[5] Gold rebounds above $4,000 as softer US data, Warsh remarks weigh on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-near-4-000-as-traders-await-us-labor-data-fed-chair-speech-202607011130 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:14:14 Z

[6] Copper: Tariff delay tempers upside - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tariff-delay-tempers-upside-td-securities-202607011403 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:03:47 Z

[7] Breaking: US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.3 in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-signal-continued-expansion-in-us-factory-activity-202607010800 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:03:20 Z

[8] United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 73, below expectations (79) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-prices-paid-came-in-at-73-below-expectations-79-in-june-202607011400 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:00:03 Z

[9] United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index fell from previous 56.8 to 56 in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-new-orders-index-fell-from-previous-568-to-56-in-june-202607011400 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:00:03 Z

[10] United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-533-below-forecasts-54-in-june-202607011400 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:00:03 Z

[11] United States Construction Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-construction-spending-mom-below-expectations-02-in-may-actual-01-202607011400 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:00:03 Z

[12] United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 49.7 (June) vs 48.6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-employment-index-497-june-vs-486-202607011400 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:00:01 Z

[13] Swiss Franc gains as US Dollar eases on Fed Chair Warsh's remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-as-us-dollar-eases-on-fed-chair-warshs-remarks-202607011357 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:57:49 Z

[14] Breaking: Fed Chair Warsh says they are not happy with inflation above 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-fed-chair-warsh-reiterates-he-is-not-going-to-give-forward-guidance-202607011310 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:53:29 Z

[15] Gold: Forecasts cut but constructive case intact - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-forecasts-cut-but-constructive-case-intact-ocbc-202607011348 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:48:20 Z

[16] United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (55.7) in June: Actual (53.9) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-below-forecasts-557-in-june-actual-539-202607011345 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:45:03 Z

[17] What is keeping the Japanese Yen at 40-year lows as Tankan surges and authorities watch from the sidelines? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/what-is-keeping-the-japanese-yen-at-40-year-lows-as-tankan-surges-and-authorities-watch-from-the-sidelines-202607011339 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:39:43 Z

[18] British Pound: Inflation risk keeps rates curve elevated - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-inflation-risk-keeps-rates-curve-elevated-ing-202607011335 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:35:54 Z

[19] New Zealand Dollar declines amid US Dollar safe-haven demand, NFP focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-declines-amid-us-dollar-safe-haven-demand-nfp-focus-202607011332 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:32:58 Z

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 123 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily — 8.3% of normal
Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost