Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-01 09:38:15 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.34 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma +2.6B long-gamma / vol-dampening, flow dampening, GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.16 normal, SPY/Oil -0.02 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.14 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; live dealer gamma positive at 2.6B (vol-dampening); breadth rising to 65% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.71 | 50 SMA $735.87 | 200 SMA $691.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.0
- QQQ: $728.74 | 50 SMA $706.22 | 200 SMA $633.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $722.21
- IWM: $300.36 | 50 SMA $285.68 | 200 SMA $260.15 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $298.52
- VIX: 17.07 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.477%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.71 | 54.94 | 83.4 | $746.00 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| QQQ | $728.74 | 57.96 | 100.0 | $722.21 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| IWM | $300.36 | 70.13 | 69.1 | $298.52 | Neutral | 0.65 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.07 | 32.98 | 100.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| TNX | 44.77 | 38.15 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.38 | 36.65 | 42.1 | $369.17 | Neutral | 1.16 |
| DXY | 101.49 | 72.90 | 24.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.33 | 37.26 | 25.7 | $41.01 | Neutral | 1.22 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 488
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 80.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 76.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 60.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 52.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $69.00 (5d: -4.1%)
- Brent Crude: $71.95 | Spread: $2.95
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.40
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.66
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.868 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.404 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.162 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.02 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 32,624.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 43,584.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.34 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $5.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $743.71)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.75 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.49
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $26.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,790B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,981B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,081B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,851B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $58,670 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.26/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $104.55 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (745.20) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=111750B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.52%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Jun): 98 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 122
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.95 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Lagarde speech: Risks are more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lagarde-speech-risks-are-more-broadly-balanced-than-a-few-weeks-ago-202607011329 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:29:26 Z
[2] Breaking: Fed Chair Warsh says US will be a big winner in AI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-fed-chair-warsh-reiterates-he-is-not-going-to-give-forward-guidance-202607011310 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:27:34 Z
[3] European Central Bank: July risks reduced on softer data - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-july-risks-reduced-on-softer-data-nordea-202607011321 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:21:57 Z
[4] Datadog (DDOG) Elliott Wave: Wave (5) targets 278 and 373 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/datadog-ddog-elliott-wave-wave-5-targets-278-and-373-202607011321 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:21:55 Z
[5] Parker-Hannifin wave V targets 1,086-1,170 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/parker-hannifin-wave-v-targets-1-086-1-170-202607011318 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:18:42 Z
[6] South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales: 54482 (June) vs 51071 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-total-new-vehicle-sales-54482-june-vs-51071-202607011317 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:17:16 Z
[7] BoE's Bailey: Rate cuts off the table at the moment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-bailey-rate-cuts-off-the-table-at-the-moment-202607011316 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:16:18 Z
[8] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to underline resilient US manufacturing activity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-signal-continued-expansion-in-us-factory-activity-202607010800 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:15:00 Z
[9] Japanese Yen: Softer footing risk as intervention fades - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-softer-footing-risk-as-intervention-fades-dbs-202607011313 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:13:01 Z
[10] Gold steadies above $4,000 as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-near-4-000-as-traders-await-us-labor-data-fed-chair-speech-202607011130 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:05:17 Z
[11] Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 (June) vs 49.1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-508-june-vs-491-202607011300 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:00:01 Z
[12] US Dollar: Modest upside risk with Sintra focus - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-modest-upside-risk-with-sintra-focus-ocbc-202607011259 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:59:25 Z
[13] US equities: AI-led earnings support - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-equities-ai-led-earnings-support-hsbc-202607011243 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:43:04 Z
[14] Euro hits one-year low vs. British Pound after Eurozone inflation misses forecasts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hits-one-year-low-vs-british-pound-after-eurozone-inflation-misses-forecasts-202607011236 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:36:05 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] EU aviation agency extends Mideast airspace warning Time: 2026-07-01T13:06:06.746Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 123 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 5.4% of normal
- Throughput: 7.5% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 400
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost