Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-01 09:02:26 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.92 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma +7.7B long-gamma / vol-dampening, flow dampening, GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 normal, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.03 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.16 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.504 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 85/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; live dealer gamma positive at 7.7B (vol-dampening); breadth falling to 62% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.12 | 50 SMA $735.87 | 200 SMA $691.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.9
- QQQ: $730.50 | 50 SMA $706.22 | 200 SMA $633.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $722.14
- IWM: $299.63 | 50 SMA $285.68 | 200 SMA $260.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.35
- VIX: 16.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.495%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.12 | 54.94 | 83.4 | $745.90 | Neutral | 0.70 |
| QQQ | $730.50 | 57.96 | 100.0 | $722.14 | Neutral | 0.51 |
| IWM | $299.63 | 70.13 | 69.1 | $298.35 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.84 | 32.98 | 100.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| TNX | 44.95 | 38.15 | 37.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $369.17 | 36.65 | 42.1 | $369.23 | Bearish | 1.85 |
| DXY | 101.50 | 73.00 | 24.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.99 | 37.26 | 25.7 | $41.01 | Neutral | 1.14 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 77.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 48.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.69 (5d: -4.5%)
- Brent Crude: $71.78 | Spread: $3.09
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.71/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.72
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.867 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.4 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.145 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.033 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $602.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $745.12)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.50%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.76 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.50
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $26.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,790B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,981B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,081B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,851B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $58,620 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.71/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.44 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (745.20) dropped below ZGL (745.90) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=111750B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.22%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Jun): 98 vs Est. 118 (MISS) | Prev: 122
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.95 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Euro: ECB rhetoric and Warsh risk guide downside - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-rhetoric-and-warsh-risk-guide-downside-ing-202607011230 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:30:36 Z
[2] United States private sector employment rises 98K in June vs. 113K expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-private-sector-employment-rises-98k-in-june-vs-113k-expected-202607011221 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:21:50 Z
[3] Japanese Yen: Intervention talk and BoJ signals - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-talk-and-boj-signals-rabobank-202607011216 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:16:45 Z
[4] Japanese Yen consolidates at 40-year lows against USD amid high intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-consolidates-at-40-year-lows-against-usd-amid-high-intervention-risks-202607011216 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:16:45 Z
[5] United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (113K) in June: Actual (98K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-below-forecasts-113k-in-june-actual-98k-202607011215 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:15:01 Z
[6] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to signal continued expansion in US factory activity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-signal-continued-expansion-in-us-factory-activity-202607010800 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:15:00 Z
[7] Indian Rupee: Supported by BoP and RBI stance - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-supported-by-bop-and-rbi-stance-dbs-202607011201 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:01:31 Z
[8] Mexican Peso: USMCA risks and Banxico stance - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-usmca-risks-and-banxico-stance-societe-generale-202607011148 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:48:05 Z
[9] US Dollar: Stronger outlook with steady Fed - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-stronger-outlook-with-steady-fed-hsbc-202607011139 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:39:34 Z
[10] White House Adviser Hassett: It would be mistake to raise interest rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/white-house-adviser-hassett-it-would-be-mistake-to-raise-interest-rates-202607011139 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:39:28 Z
[11] Euro area: Lower inflation tempers ECB pressure - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-area-lower-inflation-tempers-ecb-pressure-nordea-202607011131 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:31:08 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] Trump says US had very good meetings with Iran Time: 2026-07-01T12:38:08.597Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 123 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 5.4% of normal
- Throughput: 7.5% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 400
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost