Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-01 08:01:13 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.92 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma +7.7B long-gamma / vol-dampening, flow dampening, GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 normal, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.03 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.28 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 90/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; live dealer gamma positive at 7.7B (vol-dampening); breadth falling to 62% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.30 | 50 SMA $735.14 | 200 SMA $690.98 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $739.18
- QQQ: $736.29 | 50 SMA $704.47 | 200 SMA $632.87 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $719.1
- IWM: $299.92 | 50 SMA $285.19 | 200 SMA $259.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $298.23
- VIX: 16.45 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.418%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.30 | 50.94 | 81.8 | $739.18 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| QQQ | $736.29 | 52.28 | 100.0 | $719.10 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| IWM | $299.92 | 69.68 | 69.8 | $298.23 | Neutral | 0.93 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.45 | 43.87 | 98.8 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.79 |
| TNX | 44.18 | 29.95 | 33.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.50 | 34.10 | 43.1 | $346.77 | Neutral | 1.14 |
| DXY | 101.34 | 72.03 | 24.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.82 | 31.08 | 25.2 | $44.21 | Neutral | 0.59 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 77.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 48.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $69.50 (5d: -1.2%)
- Brent Crude: $72.92 | Spread: $3.42
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.3200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.72
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.867 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.396 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.141 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.028 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.96
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,209,046.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,864,381.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $602.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $746.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.42%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.34
- Growth vs Value: 0.99
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $26.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,790B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,981B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,081B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,851B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $58,586 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.26/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.44 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=111750B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] SPY (741.54) reclaimed ZGL (741.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.96) dropped below ZGL (741.52) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.22%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Jun): β³ Pending
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.51 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.95 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Gold steadies near $4,000 as traders await US labor data, Fed Chair speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-near-4-000-as-traders-await-us-labor-data-fed-chair-speech-202607011130 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:30:15 Z
[2] Indian Rupee slides to two-week low amid surging US Treasury Yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-falls-as-us-treasury-yields-surge-202607010550 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:29:20 Z
[3] Australian Dollar dips as firm US labor data, risk aversion support US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-dips-as-firm-us-labor-data-risk-aversion-support-us-dollar-202607011127 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:27:37 Z
[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers near YTD lows at $3,941 weighed by higher US yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-hovers-near-ytd-lows-at-3-945-weighed-by-higher-us-yields-202607011118 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:18:34 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar: USMCA uncertainty weighs on Loonie - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-usmca-uncertainty-weighs-on-loonie-ing-202607011115 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:15:32 Z
[6] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to reaffirm expansion in the US manufacturing sector URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-signal-continued-expansion-in-us-factory-activity-202607010800 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:15:00 Z
[7] United States Challenger Job Cuts decline to 45,849 in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-challenger-job-cuts-decline-to-45-849-in-june-202607011112 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:12:42 Z
[8] ECB's Wunsch: Would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-wunsch-would-need-stronger-second-round-effects-to-justify-further-tightening-202607011111 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:11:50 Z
[9] ECB's Kocher: Next decisions will be either hike or hold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-kocher-next-decisions-will-be-either-hike-or-hold-202607011102 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:02:37 Z
[10] United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 0% (June 26) vs previous 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-0-june-26-vs-previous-1-202607011100 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:00:01 Z
[11] Euro extends its reversal below 1.1400 amid cooling Eurozone Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-extends-its-reversal-below-11400-amid-cooling-eurozone-inflation-data-202607011012 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:12:23 Z
[12] US Dollar: Labor data and confidence guide outlook - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-labor-data-and-confidence-guide-outlook-td-securities-202607011005 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:05:16 Z
[13] Factories hold their ground as stocks coil for a break URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/factories-hold-their-ground-as-stocks-coil-for-a-break-202607010959 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 09:59:50 Z
[14] Japanese Yen: Gradual weakness risks with BoJ tightening - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-gradual-weakness-risks-with-boj-tightening-mufg-202607010956 Published: Wed, 01 Jul 2026 09:56:32 Z
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] How Trump decided to strike Iran, new book reveals final hours Time: 2026-07-01T11:47:40.977Z
[2] Insulin costs soar in Iran as insurance fails to keep up Time: 2026-07-01T11:39:15.442Z
[3] Ilam mayor arrested over financial allegations, prosecutor says Time: 2026-07-01T11:38:23.357Z
[4] Video: Khamenei funeral chief denies temporary burial reports Time: 2026-07-01T11:23:05.598Z
[BREAKING] [5] Armed small craft leaves vessel off Yemen, UKMTO says Time: 2026-07-01T11:21:29.519Z
[BREAKING] [6] Germany says ceasefire needed before reconstruction talks Time: 2026-07-01T11:07:16.499Z
[7] Iran, Qatar discuss implementation of US-Iran interim deal Time: 2026-07-01T11:03:51.575Z
[8] Tehran municipal staff ordered to attend Khamenei funeral, audio suggests Time: 2026-07-01T10:59:45.212Z
[9] Iran FM warns Israel after Katz threat against Khamenei Time: 2026-07-01T10:53:59.583Z
[10] Reuters columnist says Iran war risk may rise after US midterms Time: 2026-07-01T10:38:16.161Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 123 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS240 (+380% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost