Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-29 09:01:52 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | live dealer gamma -6.6B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX -4.7B severe amplification |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.35 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 139 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.84 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 14 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β breadth, energy, and correlations align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-OFF | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is RISK-OFF β negative GEX (-4.7B) and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.438; live dealer gamma negative at -6.6B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.30 | 50 SMA $734.35 | 200 SMA $690.54 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $735.61
- QQQ: $715.47 | 50 SMA $702.79 | 200 SMA $632.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $703.94
- IWM: $299.51 | 50 SMA $284.61 | 200 SMA $259.54 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $297.58
- VIX: 18.22 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.378%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.30 | 44.93 | 75.2 | $735.61 | Bearish | 1.74 |
| QQQ | $715.47 | 50.43 | 99.2 | $703.94 | Bearish | 1.71 |
| IWM | $299.51 | 73.09 | 69.9 | $297.58 | Neutral | 1.09 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.22 | 48.61 | 98.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| TNX | 43.78 | 32.10 | 34.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.73 | 36.88 | 43.7 | $275.00 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| DXY | 101.26 | 70.17 | 23.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.00 | 31.92 | 25.7 | $52.27 | Neutral | 0.91 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -4.68B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 73.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $70.06 (5d: -4.3%)
- Brent Crude: $73.24 | Spread: $3.18
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.40/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.84
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.87
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.859 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.437 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.456 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.352 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 66.79
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $713.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $737.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -35,448 contracts (Z +2.41, as of 2026-06-23)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· GEX -4.7B (deep_negative))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.38%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.26
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 14/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,970B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,109B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,890B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,906 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.40/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $105.48 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] SPY (737.26) reclaimed ZGL (735.61) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=110587B
- [WARNING] GEX flipped negative to -4.7B β dealer hedging now amplifies moves.
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to -4.7B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-OFF.
- [WARNING] SPY (731.48) dropped below ZGL (732.05) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.10%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.8%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.3% vs Est. 3.4% (MISS) | Prev: 3.4%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 50.7 vs Est. 49.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 49.5 vs Est. 48.9 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.49 (β1.8% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Which of the Magnificent Seven has the best economic moats and is it time for investors URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/which-of-the-magnificent-seven-has-the-best-economic-moats-and-is-it-time-for-investors-202606291250 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:50:02 Z
[2] Japanese Yen: Downtrend tests 2024 low against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-downtrend-tests-2024-low-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202606291249 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:49:26 Z
[3] Eurozone: Heatwaves add macro risk for growth - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-heatwaves-add-macro-risk-for-growth-ing-202606291239 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:39:26 Z
[4] US Dollar Index: Fed hikes repriced on softer inflation - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-fed-hikes-repriced-on-softer-inflation-deutsche-bank-202606291230 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:30:55 Z
[5] Euro: Cyclical Dollar strength versus EUR risks - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-cyclical-dollar-strength-versus-eur-risks-rabobank-202606291212 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:12:30 Z
[6] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP gains as Burnham backs current Labour policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-gains-as-burnham-backs-current-labour-policy-202606291209 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:09:43 Z
[7] British Pound gains as UK Burnham pledges continuation of current Labour policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gains-as-uk-burnham-pledges-continuation-of-current-labour-policy-202606291154 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 11:54:34 Z
[8] Oil: Gulf de-escalation keeps crude supported - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-gulf-de-escalation-keeps-crude-supported-bny-202606291154 Published: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 11:54:21 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Oman says no transit fees for ships in Hormuz Time: 2026-06-29T12:59:46.218Z
[BREAKING] [2] Witkoff, Kushner to join Iran meeting in Doha Time: 2026-06-29T12:30:40.439Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 121 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.7% of normal (0.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS130 (+160% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost