Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-26 12:45:08 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.412 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma -8.8B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, flow amplifying, GEX +2.0B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.88 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.48 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.44 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.81 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.412) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.412; live dealer gamma negative at -8.8B (vol-amplifying); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $734.40 | 50 SMA $733.77 | 200 SMA $690.14 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $733.1
- QQQ: $713.12 | 50 SMA $701.41 | 200 SMA $631.52 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.91
- IWM: $298.65 | 50 SMA $284.00 | 200 SMA $259.22 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.86
- VIX: 18.95 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.372%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $734.40 | 38.44 | 74.3 | $733.10 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| QQQ | $713.12 | 43.77 | 97.9 | $715.91 | Bearish | 1.83 |
| IWM | $298.65 | 57.07 | 69.9 | $296.86 | Neutral | 0.94 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.95 | 43.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| TNX | 43.72 | 41.45 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.65 | 28.46 | 43.0 | $361.75 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| DXY | 101.29 | 70.38 | 25.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.49 | 23.34 | 25.3 | $30.00 | Neutral | 0.67 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.412
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 79.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 74.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 44.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $68.97 (5d: -7.8%)
- Brent Crude: $72.43 | Spread: $3.46
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.67/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.87
- UNG (Nat Gas): $12.07
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.883 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.36 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.476 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.436 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,502,234.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,999,674.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $404.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $736 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $734.40)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.37%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.29
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,990B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,110B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,912B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $60,374 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.412) despite calm surface (VIX 18.9, breadth 66%).
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.67/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $104.82 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] SPY (734.10) reclaimed ZGL (733.06) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (731.81) dropped below ZGL (733.13) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.15%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.8%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.3% vs Est. 3.4% (MISS) | Prev: 3.4%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 50.7 vs Est. 49.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 49.5 vs Est. 48.9 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Malaysian Ringgit: Policy support tempers downside but caps upside - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysian-ringgit-policy-support-tempers-downside-but-caps-upside-mufg-202606261636 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:36:44 Z
[2] Dow Jones Industrial Average wins the week by playing defence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-wins-the-week-by-playing-defence-202606261636 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:36:25 Z
[3] Fed's Kashkari: "I have one rate hike penciled in for 2026" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-kashkari-i-have-one-rate-hike-penciled-in-for-2026-202606261621 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:21:10 Z
[4] WTI Oil weakens as Middle East export recovery tempers supply risk concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-weakens-as-middle-east-export-recovery-tempers-supply-risk-concerns-202606261617 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:17:58 Z
[5] US President Trump: Iran broke the ceasefire with Hormuz drone strike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-iran-broke-the-ceasefire-with-hormuz-drone-strike-202606261615 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:15:41 Z
[6] Euro holds ground against the US Dollar as traders weigh Middle East tensions and Fed outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-ground-against-the-us-dollar-as-traders-weigh-middle-east-tensions-and-fed-outlook-202606261608 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:08:53 Z
[7] British Pound rebounds as US Dollar rally fades, UK politics stabilize URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rebounds-as-us-dollar-rally-fades-uk-politics-stabilize-202606261600 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 16:00:08 Z
[8] Australian Dollar recovers as US Dollar eases on profit-taking URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-recovers-as-us-dollar-eases-on-profit-taking-202606261552 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:52:56 Z
[9] China: Spending set to rebound - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-spending-set-to-rebound-standard-chartered-202606261551 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:51:58 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] IRGC denies US claims of direct Tehran-Washington line over Hormuz Time: 2026-06-26T16:41:10.864Z
[2] Iran lawmaker tells GCC: missiles, drones and Hormuz are Tehran's red lines Time: 2026-06-26T16:35:33.447Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-06-20, 6 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 6.4% of normal
- Throughput: 6.3% of normal (0.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 13.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost