Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-26 10:53:32 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.412 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma -13.0B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX +2.0B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.88 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.42 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.80 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.412) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.412; live dealer gamma negative at -13.0B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $732.51 | 50 SMA $733.77 | 200 SMA $690.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $733.13
- QQQ: $710.83 | 50 SMA $701.41 | 200 SMA $631.52 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.94
- IWM: $298.29 | 50 SMA $284.00 | 200 SMA $259.22 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.88
- VIX: 19.37 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.375%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $732.51 | 38.44 | 74.3 | $733.13 | Bearish | 1.66 |
| QQQ | $710.83 | 43.77 | 97.9 | $715.94 | Bearish | 2.14 |
| IWM | $298.29 | 57.07 | 69.9 | $296.88 | Neutral | 1.08 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.37 | 43.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| TNX | 43.75 | 41.45 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.89 | 28.46 | 43.0 | $361.83 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| DXY | 101.15 | 67.28 | 27.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.69 | 23.34 | 25.3 | $52.40 | Neutral | 0.80 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.412
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 76.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 74.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 62.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 41.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $69.03 (5d: -7.7%)
- Brent Crude: $72.42 | Spread: $3.39
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.05/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.86
- UNG (Nat Gas): $12.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.883 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.34 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.473 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.42 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,225,228.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,342,536.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $188.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $736 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $732.51)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.38%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.15
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,990B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,110B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,912B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,379 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.412) despite calm surface (VIX 19.4, breadth 64%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.05/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $104.8 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY (731.81) dropped below ZGL (733.13) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: ANET β promotion-ready (13d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 49% (n=4890)).
- [INFO] Screener: JCI β promotion-ready (17d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 49% (n=4890)).
- [INFO] Screener: SLAB β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 43/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 49% (n=4890)).
- [INFO] Screener: TCBI β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 49% (n=4890)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.10%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): β³ Pending
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Brent: Oversold rebound risk for crude - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-oversold-rebound-risk-for-crude-td-securities-202606261438 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:38:49 Z
[2] Goldman Sachs' 1 Delta desk says AI's biggest risk is the reflexive loop URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/goldman-sachs-1-delta-desk-says-ais-biggest-risk-is-the-reflexive-loop-202606261425 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:25:47 Z
[3] Japanese Yen: BoJ normalization supports JPY against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-normalization-supports-jpy-against-us-dollar-mufg-202606261424 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:24:28 Z
[4] Malaysia: AI boom offsets energy shock risks - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-ai-boom-offsets-energy-shock-risks-hsbc-202606261413 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:13:21 Z
[5] Indonesian Rupiah : IDR recovery versus bond outflows - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-idr-recovery-versus-bond-outflows-bny-202606261403 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:03:57 Z
[6] United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations meets forecasts (4.6%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-1-year-consumer-inflation-expectations-meets-forecasts-46-in-june-202606261400 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:00:13 Z
[7] United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 50.7 above expectations (49.3) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-expectations-index-registered-at-507-above-expectations-493-in-june-202606261400 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:00:10 Z
[8] United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 49.5, below expectations (50) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-came-in-at-495-below-expectations-50-in-june-202606261400 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:00:02 Z
[9] United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation below expectations (3.4%) in June: Actual (3.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-uom-5-year-consumer-inflation-expectation-below-expectations-34-in-june-actual-33-202606261400 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:00:01 Z
[10] Gold holds gains above $4,000 but eyes a fourth consecutive monthly decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-above-4-000-as-us-pce-data-cools-near-term-fed-rate-hike-bets-202606261156 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:57:44 Z
[11] Fed: Rate hikes seen unlikely - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-rate-hikes-seen-unlikely-commerzbank-202606261349 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:49:42 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-06-20, 6 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 62 of 60 normal daily β 66.7% of normal
- Throughput: 74.3% of normal (7.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost