Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-26 09:45:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.3% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.412 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.18 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma -13.2B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX +2.0B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 63% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +9.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.28 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.39 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 20.3 moderate Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.51 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.412) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.412; live dealer gamma negative at -13.2B (vol-amplifying); breadth falling to 63% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.3 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $728.15 | 50 SMA $733.77 | 200 SMA $690.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $733.2
- QQQ: $704.85 | 50 SMA $701.41 | 200 SMA $631.52 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.97
- IWM: $297.13 | 50 SMA $284.00 | 200 SMA $259.22 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.88
- VIX: 20.31 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.392%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $728.15 | 38.44 | 74.3 | $733.20 | Bearish | 2.47 |
| QQQ | $704.85 | 43.77 | 97.9 | $715.97 | Bearish | 3.07 |
| IWM | $297.13 | 57.07 | 69.9 | $296.88 | Neutral | 1.41 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.31 | 43.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| TNX | 43.92 | 41.45 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.50 | 28.46 | 43.0 | $361.88 | Neutral | 1.17 |
| DXY | 101.11 | 66.37 | 27.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.77 | 23.34 | 25.3 | $25.00 | Neutral | 1.05 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.412
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 76.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 43.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $69.63 (5d: -6.9%)
- Brent Crude: $72.96 | Spread: $3.33
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.29/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.87
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.97
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.887 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.277 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.475 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.388 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 202,565.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 238,781.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.18 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $32.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $728.15)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.39%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.11
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,880B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $58,949 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.29/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $105.65 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B
- [WARNING] SPY (735.07) dropped below ZGL (736.86) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (734.39) reclaimed ZGL (734.23) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=106950B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.10%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): β³ Pending
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.84 (β0.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Brent: Hormuz risk premium still fragile - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-hormuz-risk-premium-still-fragile-ocbc-202606261335 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:35:42 Z
[2] New Zealand Dollar stabilizes after US inflation data as RBNZ hold expectations cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-stabilizes-after-us-inflation-data-as-rbnz-hold-expectations-cap-upside-202606261332 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:32:49 Z
[3] Swiss Franc strengthens as US Dollar loses momentum following US PCE inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-strengthens-as-us-dollar-loses-momentum-following-us-pce-inflation-data-202606261331 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:31:56 Z
[4] Gold: More pain before recovery - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-more-pain-before-recovery-td-securities-202606261327 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:27:12 Z
[5] Czech Koruna: Hawkish CNB supports koruna against Dollar pressure - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/czech-koruna-hawkish-cnb-supports-koruna-against-dollar-pressure-ing-202606261315 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:15:31 Z
[6] Singapore: Broad-based strength with cautious MAS - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-broad-based-strength-with-cautious-mas-hsbc-202606261305 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:05:25 Z
[7] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD rises above 1.3200 from YTD lows at 1.3140 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-rises-above-13200-from-ytd-lows-at-13140-202606261258 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:58:25 Z
[8] US Dollar: Momentum softens as data cools - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-momentum-softens-as-data-cools-mufg-202606261255 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:55:57 Z
[9] Oil: Market optimism faces supply risks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-market-optimism-faces-supply-risks-commerzbank-202606261246 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:46:20 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 118 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 62 of 60 normal daily β 103.3% of normal
- Throughput: 117.5% of normal (12.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 320
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 13.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $0.8 billion/day economic cost