Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-26 09:01:14 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.412 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.23 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma -12.5B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX +2.0B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.88 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.44 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 20.2 moderate Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.52 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.412) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.412; live dealer gamma negative at -12.5B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.2 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $728.87 | 50 SMA $733.77 | 200 SMA $690.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $733.17
- QQQ: $705.51 | 50 SMA $701.41 | 200 SMA $631.52 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.97
- IWM: $296.66 | 50 SMA $284.00 | 200 SMA $259.22 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.89
- VIX: 20.21 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.396%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $728.87 | 38.44 | 74.3 | $733.17 | Neutral | 1.42 |
| QQQ | $705.51 | 43.77 | 97.9 | $715.97 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| IWM | $296.66 | 57.07 | 69.9 | $296.89 | Neutral | 1.04 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.21 | 43.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.90 |
| TNX | 43.96 | 41.45 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $372.52 | 28.46 | 43.0 | $346.58 | Bearish | 1.82 |
| DXY | 101.20 | 68.22 | 26.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.07 | 23.34 | 25.3 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.11 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.412
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 79.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $69.46 (5d: -7.2%)
- Brent Crude: $72.87 | Spread: $3.41
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.18/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.09
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.75
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.884 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.325 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.475 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.441 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.23 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $763.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $728.87)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.40%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.20
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,880B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,067 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.18/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.31 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B
- [WARNING] SPY (735.07) dropped below ZGL (736.86) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (734.39) reclaimed ZGL (734.23) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=106950B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Goods Trade Balance(May): -105.80 vs Est. -85.00 (MISS) | Prev: -83.01
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): β³ Pending
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(May): 0.4% | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] United States Wholesale Inventories above forecasts (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-wholesale-inventories-above-forecasts-02-in-may-actual-03-202606261230 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:30:41 Z
[2] United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-105.8B below forecasts ($-85B) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-trade-balance-came-in-at-1058b-below-forecasts-85b-in-may-202606261230 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:30:07 Z
[3] Silver Price Forecast: RSI stays in oversold territory as XAG/USD struggles below $60 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-rsi-stays-in-oversold-territory-as-xag-usd-struggles-below-60-202606261225 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:25:54 Z
[4] Gold: Stabilisation not confirmed reversal - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-stabilisation-not-confirmed-reversal-ocbc-202606261224 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:24:20 Z
[5] Reserve Bank of Australia: Gradual cooling supports steady policy - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/reserve-bank-of-australia-gradual-cooling-supports-steady-policy-uob-202606261207 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:07:42 Z
[6] Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ down to $0.638B in May from previous $3.351B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-trade-balance-s-a-down-to-0638b-in-may-from-previous-3351b-202606261201 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:01:18 Z
[7] Mexico Trade Balance, $ dipped from previous $4.52B to $2.259B in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-452b-to-2259b-in-may-202606261200 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:00:03 Z
[8] US Dollar: Choppy rates as markets digest PCE - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-choppy-rates-as-markets-digest-pce-td-securities-202606261158 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:58:21 Z
[9] Gold holds above $4,000 as US PCE data cools near-term Fed rate-hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-above-4-000-as-us-pce-data-cools-near-term-fed-rate-hike-bets-202606261156 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:56:29 Z
[10] British Pound picks up above 1.3200 with the YTD lows of 1.3140 close by URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-picks-up-above-13200-with-the-ytd-lows-of-13140-close-by-202606261155 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:55:23 Z
[11] Indonesia: Growth slows as energy shock bites - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-growth-slows-as-energy-shock-bites-hsbc-202606261147 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:47:47 Z
[12] Economists Agree: Fed to hold rates in 3.50%-3.75% range this year - Reuters poll URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/economists-agree-fed-to-hold-rates-in-350-375-range-this-year-reuters-poll-202606261143 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:43:25 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Israel warns Iran against any strike Time: 2026-06-26T12:45:46.666Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 118 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 62 of 60 normal daily β 103.3% of normal
- Throughput: 117.5% of normal (12.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 320
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 13.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $0.8 billion/day economic cost