Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-26 08:00:45 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.412 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.23 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma -12.5B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX +2.0B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.43 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.83 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.412) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.412; live dealer gamma negative at -12.5B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $732.50 | 50 SMA $732.97 | 200 SMA $689.72 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.86
- QQQ: $713.56 | 50 SMA $699.66 | 200 SMA $630.84 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.98
- IWM: $298.73 | 50 SMA $283.39 | 200 SMA $258.92 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $295.99
- VIX: 18.89 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.392%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $732.50 | 39.54 | 75.6 | $736.86 | Bearish | 1.59 |
| QQQ | $713.56 | 41.27 | 100.0 | $716.98 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| IWM | $298.73 | 58.86 | 75.4 | $295.99 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.89 | 56.15 | 99.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| TNX | 43.92 | 41.12 | 40.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.90 | 28.36 | 42.1 | $369.10 | Bearish | 3.01 |
| DXY | 101.44 | 78.94 | 23.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.12 | 23.87 | 25.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.16 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.412
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 79.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.45 (5d: -6.7%)
- Brent Crude: $75.02 | Spread: $3.57
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.99/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.09
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.75
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.886 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.354 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.472 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.434 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,667,190.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,726,655.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.23 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $763.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $732.50)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.39%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.44
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,880B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,322 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.412) despite calm surface (VIX 18.9, breadth 64%).
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.99/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.31 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B
- [WARNING] SPY (735.07) dropped below ZGL (736.86) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (734.39) reclaimed ZGL (734.23) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.3%
- Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): -4.5% vs Est. -5.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 8.5%
- GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 2.1% vs Est. 1.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.5%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 225 (MISS) | Prev: 227
- 7-Year Note Auction: 4.260% | Prev: 4.290%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 2.5% vs Est. 3.0% (MISS) | Prev: 3.0%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,821 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,800
- Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): 1.3% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.4%
- Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.40% (INLINE) | Prev: 2.70%
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,736
- GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.6% vs Est. 3.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.7%
- PCE Price index(YoY)(May): 4.1% vs Est. 4.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.8%
- PCE price index(MoM)(May): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.4%
- Personal Spending(MoM)(May): 0.7% vs Est. 0.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.4%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] Mexican Peso: Under pressure as Banxico pauses - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-under-pressure-as-banxico-pauses-societe-generale-202606261137 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:37:47 Z
[2] India Bank Loan Growth remains unchanged at 17.7% in June 1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-bank-loan-growth-remains-unchanged-at-177-in-june-1-202606261131 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:31:08 Z
[3] Canadian Dollar strengthens on softer Fed outlook while Oil prices curb further gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-strengthens-on-softer-fed-outlook-while-oil-prices-curb-further-gains-202606261130 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:30:17 Z
[4] India FX Reserves, USD up to $672.59B in June 15 from previous $671.63B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-up-to-67259b-in-june-15-from-previous-67163b-202606261130 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:30:11 Z
[5] Gold: Rate worries keep environment challenging - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rate-worries-keep-environment-challenging-commerzbank-202606261122 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:22:26 Z
[6] Indian Rupee set to open higher on Monday as US Dollar corrects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-set-to-open-higher-on-monday-as-us-dollar-corrects-202606261108 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:08:21 Z
[7] Japanese Yen: 162 seen as new intervention line against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-162-seen-as-new-intervention-line-against-us-dollar-ing-202606261106 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:06:21 Z
[8] The Mag 7 trade is ending - The AI cash-flow divorce is just beginning URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-mag-7-trade-is-ending-the-ai-cash-flow-divorce-is-just-beginning-202606261106 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:06:06 Z
[9] Euro picks up above 1.1400 amid lower Oil prices and a softer US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-picks-up-above-11400-amid-lower-oil-prices-and-a-softer-us-dollar-202606261057 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 10:57:25 Z
[10] The hand-to-mouth stock market rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-hand-to-mouth-stock-market-rally-202606261050 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 10:50:39 Z
[11] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds immediate support below $4,000 as US Dollar corrects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-immediate-support-below-4-000-as-us-dollar-corrects-202606261030 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 10:30:59 Z
[12] Apple breaks lower as chip costs pressure the AI trade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/apple-breaks-lower-as-chip-costs-pressure-the-ai-trade-202606261023 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 10:23:40 Z
[13] South Korean Won bounces from lows at 1,550 USD in a suspected intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-bounces-from-lows-at-1-550-usd-in-a-suspected-intervention-202606261021 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 10:21:10 Z
[14] Italy Trade Balance non-EU: β¬3.843B (May) vs previous β¬3.846B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-trade-balance-non-eu-eu3843b-may-vs-previous-eu3846b-202606261012 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 10:12:49 Z
[15] US Dollar: Breather not reversal - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-breather-not-reversal-ocbc-202606260953 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 09:53:57 Z
[16] Italy 5-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.16% to 3.03% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-5-y-bond-auction-dipped-from-previous-316-to-303-202606260945 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 09:45:15 Z
[17] Italy 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.77% to 3.63% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-10-y-bond-auction-dipped-from-previous-377-to-363-202606260945 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 09:45:15 Z
[18] Italy 10-y Bond Auction: 1.63% vs previous 3.77% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-10-y-bond-auction-163-vs-previous-377-202606260944 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 09:44:51 Z
[19] Oil: Hormuz risks and fragile Iran deal - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-hormuz-risks-and-fragile-iran-deal-rabobank-202606260943 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 09:43:47 Z
Iran War News
Updates (9):
[1] Khamenei adviser says Arab states' stability depends on Iran's Hormuz role Time: 2026-06-26T11:47:20.928Z
[2] Fire extinguished at Karun Petrochemical in southwestern Iran Time: 2026-06-26T11:44:43.130Z
[3] Any deal with US would be tactical, not strategic, Tehran Friday prayer Imam says Time: 2026-06-26T11:35:27.783Z
[4] State TV says three tankers changed course after IRGC warning in Hormuz Time: 2026-06-26T11:12:09.847Z
[5] IAEA access to key Iran sites tied to final deal - IRGC-linked media Time: 2026-06-26T10:48:41.857Z
[6] Friday prayer Imam says Iran's hostility toward US is "endless" Time: 2026-06-26T10:42:22.178Z
[7] Iran cleric warns US bases 'within missile range' if diplomacy fails Time: 2026-06-26T10:34:40.496Z
[8] Japan allocates $10 million in humanitarian aid for Iran Time: 2026-06-26T10:26:38.029Z
[9] Singapore 'deeply concerned' after flagged vessel hit by projectile off Oman Time: 2026-06-26T10:13:36.123Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 118 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 62 of 60 normal daily β 103.3% of normal
- Throughput: 89.4% of normal (9.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 5.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost