Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-26 04:00:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.412 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.23 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | live dealer gamma -12.5B short-gamma / vol-amplifying, GEX +2.0B vol dampening |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.43 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 4.83 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 67 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β breadth, energy, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.412) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.412; live dealer gamma negative at -12.5B (vol-amplifying). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $732.50 | 50 SMA $732.97 | 200 SMA $689.72 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.86
- QQQ: $713.56 | 50 SMA $699.66 | 200 SMA $630.84 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.98
- IWM: $298.73 | 50 SMA $283.39 | 200 SMA $258.92 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $295.99
- VIX: 18.89 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.392%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $732.50 | 39.54 | 75.6 | $736.86 | Bearish | 1.59 |
| QQQ | $713.56 | 41.27 | 100.0 | $716.98 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| IWM | $298.73 | 58.86 | 75.4 | $295.99 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.89 | 56.15 | 99.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| TNX | 43.92 | 41.12 | 40.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.90 | 28.36 | 42.1 | $369.10 | Bearish | 3.01 |
| DXY | 101.44 | 78.94 | 23.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.12 | 23.87 | 25.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.16 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.412
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.31% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 79.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.45 (5d: -6.7%)
- Brent Crude: $75.02 | Spread: $3.57
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.99/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.09
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.75
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.886 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.354 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.472 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.434 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 67.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,667,190.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,726,655.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.23 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $763.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $732.50)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.39%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.44
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.19%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $918.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,811B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,880B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $60,455 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.412) despite calm surface (VIX 18.9, breadth 64%).
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $53.99/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $109.31 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=109731B
- [WARNING] SPY (735.07) dropped below ZGL (736.86) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (734.39) reclaimed ZGL (734.23) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.3%
- Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): -4.5% vs Est. -5.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 8.5%
- GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 2.1% vs Est. 1.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.5%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 225 (MISS) | Prev: 227
- 7-Year Note Auction: 4.260% | Prev: 4.290%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 2.5% vs Est. 3.0% (MISS) | Prev: 3.0%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,821 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,800
- Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): 1.3% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.4%
- Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.40% (INLINE) | Prev: 2.70%
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,736
- GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.6% vs Est. 3.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.7%
- PCE Price index(YoY)(May): 4.1% vs Est. 4.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.8%
- PCE price index(MoM)(May): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.4%
- Personal Spending(MoM)(May): 0.7% vs Est. 0.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.4%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Equities: Tech selloff spreads despite chip strength - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-selloff-spreads-despite-chip-strength-deutsche-bank-202606260739 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:39:23 Z
[2] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD edges up, nearing $58 as the US Dollar takes a breather URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-edges-up-nearing-58-as-the-us-dollar-takes-a-breather-202606260739 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:39:13 Z
[3] British Pound: Range trade holds against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-range-trade-holds-against-us-dollar-uob-202606260728 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:28:25 Z
[4] Euro steadies against Canadian Dollar after paring recent losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-canadian-dollar-after-paring-recent-losses-202606260727 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:27:30 Z
[5] British Pound struggles to lure buyers amid UK politics as intervention fears support JPY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-struggles-to-lure-buyers-amid-uk-politics-as-intervention-fears-support-jpy-202606260717 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:17:16 Z
[6] Oil: Downside momentum persists as flows recover - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-downside-momentum-persists-as-flows-recover-ing-202606260711 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:11:26 Z
[7] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD posts modest gains around 1.3200 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-posts-modest-gains-around-13200-202606260705 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 07:05:05 Z
[8] USD/CHF Price Forecast: 0.8040 to act as key support amid correction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-08040-to-act-as-key-support-amid-correction-202606260658 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:58:13 Z
[9] Dow Jones futures fall due to energy, geopolitical anxieties URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-fall-due-to-energy-geopolitical-anxieties-202606260656 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:56:54 Z
[10] US Dollar Index weakens below 101.50 after US PCE inflation as Fed rate hike odds fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-weakens-below-10150-after-us-pce-inflation-as-fed-rate-hike-odds-fade-202606260656 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:56:39 Z
[11] US Dollar: Structural support holds with high-for-longer rates - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-structural-support-holds-with-high-for-longer-rates-mufg-202606260653 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:53:18 Z
[12] Forex Today: Global tech selloff weighs on market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-global-tech-selloff-weighs-on-market-mood-202606260649 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:49:54 Z
[13] EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro shows signs of bottoming at 0.8600 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecasts-euro-shows-signs-of-bottoming-at-08600-202606260649 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:49:20 Z
[14] Equities: Rotation persists with strong macro backdrop - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-rotation-persists-with-strong-macro-backdrop-danske-bank-202606260644 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:44:24 Z
[15] Gold recovers early lost ground on softer USD; bearish bias remains amid Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-weakens-back-below-4-000-as-fed-hike-bets-and-hormuz-risks-support-safe-haven-usd-202606260339 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:34:37 Z
[16] Japanese Yen: Inflation nears target as BoJ eyes hikes - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-inflation-nears-target-as-boj-eyes-hikes-commerzbank-202606260634 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:34:11 Z
[17] 162.00: Japanese Yen rebounds as key support holds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/16200-japanese-yen-rebounds-as-key-support-holds-202606260630 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:30:59 Z
[18] Euro remains stronger despite mixed comments from ECB officials URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-stronger-despite-mixed-comments-from-ecb-officials-202606260629 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:29:33 Z
[19] Euro: Consolidation after sharp decline against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-consolidation-after-sharp-decline-against-us-dollar-uob-202606260618 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:18:49 Z
[20] Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.7% to 6.6% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-47-to-66-in-may-202606260600 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:00:05 Z
[21] Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 1.3% in May from previous 1.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-mom-increased-to-13-in-may-from-previous-11-202606260600 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:00:04 Z
[22] Canadian Dollar rebounds as US PCE inflation data eases US rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-rebounds-as-us-pce-inflation-data-eases-us-rate-hike-bets-202606260559 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 05:59:27 Z
[23] NZD/USD Price Forecast: New Zealand Dollar holds losses near 0.5650 amid bearish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-new-zealand-dollar-holds-losses-near-05650-amid-bearish-bias-202606260554 Published: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 05:54:43 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Hezbollah chief says group will resist efforts to disarm Time: 2026-06-26T07:52:03.935Z
[2] Iran warns over Israeli military flights near its borders Time: 2026-06-26T07:16:58.137Z
[3] Araghchi says Iran will 'neither forget nor forgive' Khamenei's killing Time: 2026-06-26T07:13:17.528Z
[4] Netanyahu says Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon Time: 2026-06-26T07:09:41.115Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-06-20, 6 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 25.0% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost