Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-25 13:32:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.408 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.22 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +0.5B vol dampening |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.29% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.43 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.98 above-trend |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 12 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.408) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.408; GEX positive at 0.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 66% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $733.23 | 50 SMA $732.97 | 200 SMA $689.72 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.4
- QQQ: $716.24 | 50 SMA $699.66 | 200 SMA $630.84 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.73
- IWM: $298.40 | 50 SMA $283.39 | 200 SMA $258.92 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.39
- VIX: 18.99 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.384%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $733.23 | 39.54 | 75.6 | $736.40 | Bearish | 1.86 |
| QQQ | $716.24 | 41.27 | 100.0 | $715.73 | Neutral | 1.36 |
| IWM | $298.40 | 58.86 | 75.4 | $296.39 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.99 | 56.15 | 99.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| TNX | 43.84 | 41.12 | 40.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $370.10 | 28.36 | 42.1 | $346.72 | Bearish | 2.75 |
| DXY | 101.42 | 78.38 | 24.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.81 | 23.87 | 25.7 | $25.00 | Neutral | 1.13 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.408
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 0.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 29.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 39.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 77.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $71.75 (5d: -6.3%)
- Brent Crude: $75.22 | Spread: $3.47
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.2100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.39/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.83
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.77
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.89 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.351 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.466 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.429 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,210,539.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,134.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $523.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $737 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $733.23)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +8.8% (as of 2026-06-24)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.38%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.70 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.42
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.18%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.17%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 12/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,851B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,953B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,911B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $59,527 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.408) despite calm surface (VIX 19.0, breadth 66%).
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.29% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.39/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $108.68 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY (734.29) dropped below ZGL (736.33) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (734.32) reclaimed ZGL (720.76) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=108901B
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.3%
- Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): -4.5% vs Est. -5.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 8.5%
- GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 2.1% vs Est. 1.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.5%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 225 (MISS) | Prev: 227
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 2.5% vs Est. 3.0% (MISS) | Prev: 3.0%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,821 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,800
- Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): 1.3% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.4%
- Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.40% (INLINE) | Prev: 2.70%
- GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.6% vs Est. 3.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.7%
- PCE Price index(YoY)(May): 4.1% vs Est. 4.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.8%
- PCE price index(MoM)(May): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.4%
- Personal Spending(MoM)(May): 0.7% vs Est. 0.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.4%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.90 (β1.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Rubio, GCC ministers call for curbs on Iran's missiles, drones and proxies Time: 2026-06-25T17:11:41.924Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 117 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 24 of 60 normal daily β 25.8% of normal
- Throughput: 24.3% of normal (2.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 13.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost