Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-25 09:01:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.408 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +0.5B vol dampening
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 64% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.29% restrictive
news_sentiment	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.48 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.39 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 145 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.35 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 12 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 65 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, credit, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.408) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.408; GEX positive at 0.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $739.11 | 50 SMA $732.97 | 200 SMA $689.72 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.37
QQQ: $727.11 | 50 SMA $699.66 | 200 SMA $630.84 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $721.4
IWM: $298.67 | 50 SMA $283.39 | 200 SMA $258.92 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.55
VIX: 17.81 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.375%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$739.11	39.54	75.6	$738.37	Bearish	1.60
QQQ	$727.11	41.27	100.0	$721.40	Bearish	2.00
IWM	$298.67	58.86	75.4	$296.55	Neutral	1.17

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.81	56.15	99.4	$10.50	Neutral	0.89
TNX	43.75	41.12	40.5	-	-	-
GLD	$369.12	28.36	42.1	$343.98	Bearish	4.64
DXY	101.56	81.78	22.7	-	-	-
SLV	$52.67	23.87	25.7	$20.00	Neutral	1.34

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.408
DIX Signal: Weak
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 0.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.93%
2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Real Estate	78.6%	0/0
Health Care	72.2%	0/0
Industrials	71.6%	0/0
Financials	68.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Energy	21.1%	0/0
Communication Services	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $69.54 (5d: -9.2%)
Brent Crude: $73.22 | Spread: $3.68
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8000/gal
Heating Oil: $3.0800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.98/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $53.57
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.73

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.892	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.406	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.484	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.39	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $706.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $739.11)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.38%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.70 (Normal)
DXY: 101.56
Growth vs Value: 0.98
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.18%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.17%
Stagflation Risk Score: 12/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,851B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,953B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,911B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,144 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.408) despite calm surface (VIX 17.8, breadth 64%).
[WARNING] SKEW at 145 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.29% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.98/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.29 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=108901B
[INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B — dealer gamma cushion thinning.
[INFO] Screener: VNOM — confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
[INFO] SPY (736.41) reclaimed ZGL (736.06) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (734.97) dropped below ZGL (735.86) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

Current Month: June
Average Return: +0.13%
Median Return: +0.46%
Hit Rate: 55%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.3%
Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): -4.5% vs Est. -5.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 8.5%
GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 2.1% vs Est. 1.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.5%
Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 225 (MISS) | Prev: 227
Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,821 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,800
Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(May): 1.3% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.4%
Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.40% (INLINE) | Prev: 2.70%
GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.6% vs Est. 3.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.7%
PCE Price index(YoY)(May): 4.1% vs Est. 4.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.8%
PCE price index(MoM)(May): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.4%
Personal Spending(MoM)(May): 0.7% vs Est. 0.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.4%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Micron prints perfect, and now the chart has to answer URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/micron-prints-perfect-and-now-the-chart-has-to-answer-202606251236 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:36:17 Z

[2] United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index above expectations (3.5%) in 1Q: Actual (3.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-price-index-above-expectations-35-in-1q-actual-36-202606251234 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:34:46 Z

[3] United States Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-215k-last-week-202606251234 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:34:03 Z

[4] Breaking: US core PCE inflation rises to 3.4% in May as anticipated URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-rise-in-may-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-increase-202606250600 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:33:22 Z

[5] United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.821M, above expectations (1.8M) in June 12 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-came-in-at-1821m-above-expectations-18m-in-june-12-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:58 Z

[6] Euro slips against the British Pound as easing Oil prices temper ECB rate-hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-slips-against-the-british-pound-as-easing-oil-prices-temper-ecb-rate-hike-bets-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:56 Z

[7] United States Personal Spending above forecasts (0.6%) in May: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-spending-above-forecasts-06-in-may-actual-07-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:19 Z

[8] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (4.1%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-41-in-may-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:19 Z

[9] United States Personal Income (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in May: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-income-mom-above-expectations-04-in-may-actual-07-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:18 Z

[10] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) in line with forecasts (4.4%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-qoq-in-line-with-forecasts-44-in-1q-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:17 Z

[11] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-03-in-may-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:16 Z

[12] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-came-in-at-04-below-forecasts-05-in-may-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:15 Z

[13] United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.1%, above expectations (1.6%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-annualized-came-in-at-21-above-expectations-16-in-1q-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:13 Z

[14] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) registered at 4.6% above expectations (4.5%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-prices-qoq-registered-at-46-above-expectations-45-in-1q-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:13 Z

[15] United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation above expectations (0.6%) in May: Actual (1.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-ex-transportation-above-expectations-06-in-may-actual-13-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:12 Z

[16] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-34-in-may-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:09 Z

[17] United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense down to -4.6% in May from previous 8.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-ex-defense-down-to-46-in-may-from-previous-81-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:07 Z

[18] United States Durable Goods Orders meets expectations (-4.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-meets-expectations-45-in-may-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:04 Z

[19] United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 215K, below expectations (225K) in June 19 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-registered-at-215k-below-expectations-225k-in-june-19-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z

[20] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 224.25K in June 19 from previous 223.25K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-increased-to-22425k-in-june-19-from-previous-22325k-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z

[21] United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index : -0.1 (May) vs previous 0.14 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-01-may-vs-previous-014-202606251230 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:30:01 Z

[22] Japanese Yen: Stretched JPY shorts raise intervention risk - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-stretched-jpy-shorts-raise-intervention-risk-abn-amro-202606251224 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:24:20 Z

[23] CEE FX: Stronger Dollar and Fed risks weigh - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-stronger-dollar-and-fed-risks-weigh-ing-202606251211 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:11:57 Z

[24] Indian Rupee: Curve drivers shift with structural inflows - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-curve-drivers-shift-with-structural-inflows-dbs-202606251200 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:00:08 Z

[25] Mexico Jobless Rate above forecasts (2.6%) in May: Actual (2.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-jobless-rate-above-forecasts-26-in-may-actual-28-202606251200 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:00:04 Z

[26] Brazil Mid-month Inflation below forecasts (0.44%) in June: Actual (0.41%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-mid-month-inflation-below-forecasts-044-in-june-actual-041-202606251200 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:00:03 Z

[27] Mexico Jobless Rate s.a rose from previous 2.6% to 2.7% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-jobless-rate-sa-rose-from-previous-26-to-27-in-may-202606251200 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:00:03 Z

[28] US equities: What worked in past lost decades - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-equities-what-worked-in-past-lost-decades-td-securities-202606251149 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:49:28 Z

[29] US Secretary of State Rubio: Reiterates criticism against Iran's toll plans near Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-secretary-of-state-rubio-reiterates-criticism-against-irans-toll-plans-near-hormuz-202606251142 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:42:34 Z

[30] New Zealand Dollar slides for a seventh straight day as markets await US PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-slides-for-a-seventh-straight-day-as-markets-await-us-pce-data-202606251141 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:41:58 Z

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] India explores energy ties with Iran, oil minister says Time: 2026-06-25T12:24:28.581Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 117 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily — 41.7% of normal
Throughput: 21.2% of normal (2.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED — 5.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.8 billion/day economic cost