Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-24 17:02:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.411 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.29% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.39 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.411) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.411; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.36 | 50 SMA $732.03 | 200 SMA $689.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.06
- QQQ: $723.65 | 50 SMA $697.79 | 200 SMA $630.16 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.98
- IWM: $297.51 | 50 SMA $282.76 | 200 SMA $258.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $296.11
- VIX: 18.63 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.402%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.36 | 37.67 | 76.2 | $736.06 | Neutral | 1.33 |
| QQQ | $723.65 | 41.51 | 100.0 | $716.98 | Bearish | 1.64 |
| IWM | $297.51 | 53.42 | 76.4 | $296.11 | Neutral | 1.05 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.63 | 56.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| TNX | 44.02 | 54.26 | 26.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.10 | 30.67 | 39.3 | $255.00 | Bearish | 8.30 |
| DXY | 101.58 | 79.88 | 23.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.04 | 25.90 | 22.4 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.52 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.411
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.5B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 71.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $69.84 (5d: -9.1%)
- Brent Crude: $73.11 | Spread: $3.27
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.0900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.26/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.73
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.892 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.405 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.475 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.391 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.06
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,376,957.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,262,370.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $706.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $737 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.36)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.40%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.58
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,851B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,951B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,106B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,907B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $60,880 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.411) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 64%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.29% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.26/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.29 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] SPY (736.41) reclaimed ZGL (736.06) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (734.97) dropped below ZGL (735.86) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -6.088 vs Est. -3.900 (MISS) | Prev: -8.263
- New Home Sales(May): 580 vs Est. 638 (MISS) | Prev: 626
- 5-Year Note Auction: 4.200% | Prev: 4.182%
- Building Permits(May): 1.410 vs Est. 1.413 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
- Current Account(Q1): -226.8 vs Est. -212.0 (MISS) | Prev: -221.1
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.077 | Prev: -1.606
- New Home Sales(MoM)(May): -7.3% | Prev: -5.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Singapore Dollar: Downtrend targets 1.3000 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-downtrend-targets-13000-against-us-dollar-uob-202606242021 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 20:21:00 Z
[2] Micron serves up huge beat in fiscal Q3, shares surge afterhours URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/micron-serves-up-huge-beat-in-fiscal-q3-shares-surge-202606242013 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 20:13:46 Z
[3] US Treasury yields slide as Hormuz reopening eases inflation fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-yields-slide-as-hormuz-reopening-eases-inflation-fears-202606241947 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:47:28 Z
[4] Forex Today: US Dollar surges as traders await PCE inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-surges-as-traders-await-pce-inflation-data-202606241947 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:47:03 Z
[5] US Dollar: Firm tone extends with stretched positioning - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-firm-tone-extends-with-stretched-positioning-scotiabank-202606241933 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:33:57 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Any fee on Strait of Hormuz unacceptable, Trump says Time: 2026-06-24T20:53:31.616Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 116 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 31 of 60 normal daily β 64.7% of normal
- Throughput: 60.2% of normal (6.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost