Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-24 09:43:08 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.411 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% benign, NFCI -0.516 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.28% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 normal, SPY/TNX -0.49 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.38 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.18 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.411) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.411; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 61% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $735.29 | 50 SMA $732.03 | 200 SMA $689.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $735.91
- QQQ: $713.39 | 50 SMA $697.79 | 200 SMA $630.16 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.94
- IWM: $295.06 | 50 SMA $282.76 | 200 SMA $258.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.83
- VIX: 19.36 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.422%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $735.29 | 37.67 | 76.2 | $735.91 | Bearish | 1.56 |
| QQQ | $713.39 | 41.51 | 100.0 | $715.94 | Bearish | 2.12 |
| IWM | $295.06 | 53.42 | 76.4 | $295.83 | Neutral | 1.48 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.36 | 56.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| TNX | 44.22 | 54.26 | 26.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.11 | 30.67 | 39.3 | $270.00 | Bearish | 7.94 |
| DXY | 101.67 | 80.38 | 24.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.22 | 25.90 | 22.4 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.61 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.411
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.5B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 63.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 63.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 56.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 54.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $69.96 (5d: -8.9%)
- Brent Crude: $73.51 | Spread: $3.55
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.44/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.28
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.52
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.892 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.4 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.489 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.379 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 235,464.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 207,337.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $32.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $747 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $735.29)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.42%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.67
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,849B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,111B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,923B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,675 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.411) despite calm surface (VIX 19.4, breadth 61%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.28% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.44/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.2 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY (735.29) dropped below ZGL (735.91) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (736.29) reclaimed ZGL (735.91) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- New Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- Building Permits(May): 1.410 vs Est. 1.413 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
- Current Account(Q1): -226.8 vs Est. -212.0 (MISS) | Prev: -221.1
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.80 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] WTI: Bearish flows face tightening backdrop - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-bearish-flows-face-tightening-backdrop-td-securities-202606241313 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 13:13:43 Z
[2] Gold drops below $4,000 on hawkish Fed outlook and strong US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bears-target-4-000-as-stronger-us-dollar-and-fed-rate-hike-bets-weigh-202606241118 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 13:08:09 Z
[3] Euro: Range dynamics and stretched Dollar move - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-dynamics-and-stretched-dollar-move-societe-generale-202606241259 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:59:34 Z
[4] Singapore Dollar: MAS stance keeps SGD defensive - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-mas-stance-keeps-sgd-defensive-mufg-202606241242 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:42:05 Z
[5] Can Micron stop the AI selloff after Korea's leverage flush? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/can-micron-stop-the-ai-selloff-after-koreas-leverage-flush-202606241231 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:31:22 Z
[6] Aluminium: Deficit view intact after risk-off selloff - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aluminium-deficit-view-intact-after-risk-off-selloff-ing-202606241231 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 12:31:22 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 116 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 23 of 60 normal daily β 38.3% of normal
- Throughput: 22.3% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost