Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-24 04:00:47 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.2% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.411 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.28% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.53 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.39 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.11 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.411) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.411; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $735.02 | 50 SMA $730.95 | 200 SMA $688.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.82
- QQQ: $716.04 | 50 SMA $695.74 | 200 SMA $629.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $725.99
- IWM: $295.69 | 50 SMA $282.08 | 200 SMA $258.33 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $271.67
- VIX: 19.49 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.493%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $735.02 | 42.60 | 70.8 | $744.82 | Bearish | 3.10 |
| QQQ | $716.04 | 48.60 | 98.4 | $725.99 | Bearish | 4.04 |
| IWM | $295.69 | 58.62 | 74.2 | $271.67 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.49 | 53.13 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| TNX | 44.93 β² | 53.78 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $376.27 | 33.94 | 38.4 | $300.00 | Bearish | 12.66 |
| DXY | 101.40 | 80.65 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.70 | 30.60 | 20.7 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.411
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.5B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 26.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $72.85 (5d: -4.2%)
- Brent Crude: $76.74 | Spread: $3.89
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.21/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.46
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.50
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.892 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.417 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.53 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.391 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,214,373.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,335,149.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $700.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $735.02)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.40
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,849B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,962B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,111B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,923B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,603 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.411) despite calm surface (VIX 19.5, breadth 60%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.28% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.21/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $111.26 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=108153B
- [INFO] Screener: VNOM β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- New Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- Building Permits(May): β³ Pending
- Current Account(Q1): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Nearing seven-month highs at 0.8125 amid wide US Dollar strength URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-nearing-seven-month-highs-at-08125-amid-wide-us-dollar-strength-202606240728 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:28:39 Z
[2] Indian Rupee underperforms US Dollar amid hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-declines-further-against-us-dollar-as-hawkish-fed-bets-remain-firm-202606240527 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:24:58 Z
[3] Euro: Dollar strength pushes EUR/USD below 1.1400 - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-dollar-strength-pushes-eur-usd-below-11400-danske-bank-202606240721 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:21:14 Z
[4] Indonesian Rupiah weakens as hawkish Fed tone lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-weakens-as-hawkish-fed-tone-lifts-us-dollar-202606240718 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:18:55 Z
[5] BoJ's Ueda: Expect to continue raising interest rate as underlying inflation approaches 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-ueda-expect-to-continue-raising-interest-rate-as-underlying-inflation-approaches-2-202606240718 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:18:48 Z
[6] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD declines to near 1.3195 on Wednesday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-declines-to-near-13195-on-wednesday-202606240707 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:07:42 Z
[7] British Pound: Pressure builds on 1.3160 support against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-pressure-builds-on-13160-support-against-us-dollar-uob-202606240706 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:06:30 Z
[8] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Rally extends beyond 1.4200 on US Dollar's continued outperformance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-rally-extends-beyond-14200-on-us-dollars-continued-outperformance-202606240700 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 07:00:54 Z
[9] United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Gains ground above 101.50 amid overbought RSI signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-price-forecast-gains-ground-above-10150-amid-overbought-rsi-signals-202606240656 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:56:52 Z
[10] Gold: Fed expectations keep prices vulnerable - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-fed-expectations-keep-prices-vulnerable-ing-202606240652 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:52:18 Z
[11] Indian Rupee: Supported by policy measures against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-supported-by-policy-measures-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202606240642 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:42:55 Z
[12] RBA's Hauser: Still have work to do to reduce inflation, which remains far too high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbas-hauser-still-have-work-to-do-to-reduce-inflation-which-remains-far-too-high-202606240640 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:40:21 Z
[13] Gold bounces off two-week low; not out of the woods yet amid Fed hike bets, firmer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/4-050-gold-dives-to-fresh-two-week-low-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-boost-us-dollar-202606240340 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:35:31 Z
[14] EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Testing 10-month lows at 0.8611 in risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecasts-testing-10-month-lows-at-08611-in-risk-off-markets-202606240632 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:32:16 Z
[15] Equities: Rotation persists as tech sells off - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-rotation-persists-as-tech-sells-off-danske-bank-202606240629 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:29:10 Z
[16] KB Home (KBH) Q2 earnings meet estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/kb-home-kbh-q2-earnings-meet-estimates-202606240622 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:22:57 Z
[17] New Zealand Dollar weakens to near 0.5650 on hawkish Fed stance
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-weakens-to-near-05650-on-hawkish-fed-stance-202606240622
Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:22:11 Z
[18] Japanese Yen: Bears eye 2024 low at 162.00 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bears-eye-2024-low-at-16200-against-us-dollar-uob-202606240620 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:20:48 Z
[19] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Range tightens further at around 161.60 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-range-tightens-further-at-around-16160-202606240607 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:07:58 Z
[20] Qatar to resume normal LNG production 'within a few weeks' -- FT URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/qatar-to-resume-normal-lng-production-within-a-few-weeks-ft-202606240605 Published: Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:05:04 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran's Ghalibaf says regional states must provide their own security Time: 2026-06-24T07:39:06.758Z
[2] EU agency says airlines should avoid Iran airspace despite US-Iran deal Time: 2026-06-24T07:04:19.455Z
[3] Ghalibaf defying Supreme Leader's red lines on US talks, MP says Time: 2026-06-24T06:30:13.243Z
[4] Israel, Lebanon discuss US-backed pilot plan - Reuters Time: 2026-06-24T06:00:01.352Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 116 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 55 of 60 normal daily β 91.7% of normal
- Throughput: 86.4% of normal (8.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS115 (+130% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost