Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-23 20:01:06 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.411 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.28% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.64 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.20 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.11 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 15 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.411) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.411 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 60% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $734.50 | 50 SMA $730.95 | 200 SMA $688.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.82
- QQQ: $715.11 | 50 SMA $695.74 | 200 SMA $629.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $725.99
- IWM: $295.36 | 50 SMA $282.08 | 200 SMA $258.33 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $271.67
- VIX: 19.49 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.493%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $734.50 | 42.60 | 70.8 | $744.82 | Bearish | 3.10 |
| QQQ | $715.11 | 48.60 | 98.4 | $725.99 | Bearish | 4.04 |
| IWM | $295.36 | 58.62 | 74.2 | $271.67 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.49 | 53.13 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| TNX | 44.93 β² | 53.78 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $375.25 | 33.94 | 38.4 | $300.00 | Bearish | 12.66 |
| DXY | 101.39 | 80.56 | 23.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.30 | 30.60 | 20.7 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.411
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.5B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 60.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 26.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $72.72 (5d: -4.4%)
- Brent Crude: $76.58 | Spread: $3.86
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.06/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.46
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.50
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.902 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.575 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.636 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.203 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 68.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,214,373.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,335,149.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $700.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $733 (Spot: $734.50)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.39
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.21%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 15/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,849B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,967B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,112B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,929B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,669 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.411) despite calm surface (VIX 19.5, breadth 60%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 7/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.28% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.06/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $111.26 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Screener: VNOM β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
- [INFO] Screener: OLED β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 52/100, regime capitulation, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): 55.7 vs Est. 54.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 55.1
- S&P Global Services PMI(Jun): 51.3 vs Est. 51.1 (BEAT) | Prev: 50.7
- 2-Year Note Auction: 4.189% | Prev: 4.071%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 30.75 | Prev: 26.50
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.765 | Prev: -8.330
- S&P Global Composite PMI(Jun): 52.2 | Prev: 51.5
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran deal gives more funds than Israel receives over a decade, Levin says Time: 2026-06-23T23:51:48.076Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 115 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 32 of 60 normal daily β 53.3% of normal
- Throughput: 49.5% of normal (5.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 42.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS189 (+278% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost