Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-23 10:47:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.3% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.430 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 57% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.56 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.64 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.21 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 3.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 57% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.15 | 50 SMA $730.95 | 200 SMA $688.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $745.39
- QQQ: $719.07 | 50 SMA $695.74 | 200 SMA $629.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.35
- IWM: $295.86 | 50 SMA $282.08 | 200 SMA $258.33 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.98
- VIX: 19.32 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.485%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.15 | 42.60 | 70.8 | $745.39 | Bearish | 2.65 |
| QQQ | $719.07 | 48.60 | 98.4 | $736.35 | Bearish | 3.98 |
| IWM | $295.86 | 58.62 | 74.2 | $295.98 | Neutral | 0.95 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.32 | 53.13 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| TNX | 44.85 | 53.78 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.69 | 33.94 | 38.4 | $300.00 | Bearish | 3.40 |
| DXY | 101.38 | 80.51 | 23.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $55.99 | 30.60 | 20.7 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.15B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.27% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 486
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 70.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 70.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 15.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $72.96 (5d: -4.1%)
- Brent Crude: $76.67 | Spread: $3.71
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.0500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.70/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.17
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.899 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.565 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.644 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.206 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,186,136.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,314,000.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $184.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.15)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.79 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.38
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,852B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,991B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,112B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,955B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,920 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 4/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 7/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.70/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $110.99 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Screener: JCI β promotion-ready (14d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 54% (n=2703)).
- [INFO] Screener: CROX β promotion-ready (14d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 54% (n=2703)).
- [INFO] Screener: ANET β promotion-ready (10d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 54% (n=2703)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 30.75 | Prev: 25.50
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.51 (β6.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Oil: Limited downside as sanctions ease - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-limited-downside-as-sanctions-ease-commerzbank-202606231421 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:21:13 Z
[2] Copper: Tariff support versus demand risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tariff-support-versus-demand-risks-td-securities-202606231407 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:07:37 Z
[3] BoE's Taylor: "We enter this shock with a very weak economy" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-taylor-we-enter-this-shock-with-a-very-weak-economy-202606231402 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:02:45 Z
[4] United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 4 below forecasts (9) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-richmond-fed-manufacturing-index-came-in-at-4-below-forecasts-9-in-june-202606231400 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:00:33 Z
[5] "Global imbalances are growing and may also be fuelling financial stability risks": BoC's Macklem URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/global-imbalances-are-growing-and-may-also-be-fuelling-financial-stability-risks-bocs-macklem-202606231357 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:57:31 Z
[6] Gold languishes near $4,100 as US Dollar hits one-year highs, PMIs beat forecasts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/4-000-major-level-comes-into-focus-as-stronger-us-dollar-weighs-on-gold-202606231218 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:52:40 Z
[7] Breaking: United States S&P Global Composite PMI improves to 52.2 in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-sp-global-pmi-expected-to-show-steady-business-growth-in-june-202606230900 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:49:24 Z
[8] RY Elliott Wave forecast: Wave (3) advance targets $226.96-$270.20 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ry-elliott-wave-forecast-wave-3-advance-targets-22696-27020-202606231349 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:49:20 Z
[9] Canadian Dollar: Remains soft as USD trend extends - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-soft-as-usd-trend-extends-scotiabank-202606231348 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:48:55 Z
[10] United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (54.8) in June: Actual (55.7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-above-expectations-548-in-june-actual-557-202606231345 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:45:33 Z
[11] United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.3, above forecasts (51) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-services-pmi-came-in-at-513-above-forecasts-51-in-june-202606231345 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:45:01 Z
[12] United States S&P Global Composite PMI up to 52.2 in June from previous 51.5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-composite-pmi-up-to-522-in-june-from-previous-515-202606231345 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:45:01 Z
[13] Oil: Sanctions waiver pressures prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-sanctions-waiver-pressures-prices-ing-202606231330 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:30:53 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US pilot reports 'minefield of drones' over Iran, sparking intel debate - CNN Time: 2026-06-23T14:33:33.092Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-06-20, 3 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 20 of 60 normal daily β 33.3% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 285
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost