Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-23 00:55:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.430 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 55% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +6.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.55 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.69 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.21 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.31 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 79/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 79 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.430) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.430; GEX positive at 3.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.68 | 50 SMA $730.95 | 200 SMA $688.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.24
- QQQ: $736.17 | 50 SMA $695.74 | 200 SMA $629.47 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $726.99
- IWM: $297.90 | 50 SMA $282.08 | 200 SMA $258.33 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $294.06
- VIX: 17.28 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.509%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.68 | 42.60 | 70.8 | $744.24 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| QQQ | $736.17 | 48.60 | 98.4 | $726.99 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| IWM | $297.90 | 58.62 | 74.2 | $294.06 | Bearish | 0.38 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.28 | 53.13 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.55 |
| TNX | 45.09 | 53.78 | 26.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $384.30 | 33.94 | 38.4 | $386.95 | Bearish | 11.01 |
| DXY | 101.05 | 78.51 | 21.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.75 | 30.60 | 20.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.43
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.15B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.27% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 68.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 53.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 51.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 15.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $73.75 (5d: -3.0%)
- Brent Crude: $77.61 | Spread: $3.86
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.73/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $54.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.77
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.897 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.55 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.695 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.213 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 643,027.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 636,307.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $95.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $744 (Spot: $743.68)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.51%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.05
- Growth vs Value: 0.99
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.23%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $3.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,852B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,012B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,112B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,975B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,725 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.73/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $112.69 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=107587B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (743.50) dropped below ZGL (744.24) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: OLN β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 37/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 54% (n=2703)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.21%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Asia stocks decline on Iran risks; South Korea's KOSPI slumps 6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-stocks-decline-on-iran-risks-south-koreas-kospi-slumps-6-202606230421 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 04:21:09 Z
[2] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds losses below 113.00 on intervention fears, bias stays mildly bullish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-holds-losses-below-11300-on-intervention-fears-bias-stays-mildly-bullish-202606230416 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 04:16:02 Z
[3] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.00 as bearish bias persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-6300-as-bearish-bias-persists-202606230354 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:54:26 Z
[4] Gold weakens back below $4,150 amid Iran uncertainty, Fed hike bets, bullish USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-weakens-back-below-4-150-amid-iran-uncertainty-fed-hike-bets-bullish-usd-202606230353 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:53:42 Z
[5] Bank of America Elliott Wave bullish sequence strongly supports upside outlook [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-america-elliott-wave-bullish-sequence-strongly-supports-upside-outlook-video-202606230346 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:46:47 Z
[6] Swiss Franc holds onto losses below 0.8100 amid firm Fed interest rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-holds-onto-losses-below-08100-amid-firm-fed-interest-rate-hike-bets-202606230325 Published: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 03:25:19 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 115 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily β 41.7% of normal
- Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS130 (+160% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost