Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-22 10:35:55 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.449 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.56 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.68 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.25 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.0% yen weakening, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, credit, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.449) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.449; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 54% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $745.57 | 50 SMA $729.66 | 200 SMA $688.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.11
- QQQ: $739.34 | 50 SMA $693.18 | 200 SMA $628.63 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $740.28
- IWM: $297.39 | 50 SMA $281.36 | 200 SMA $258.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $294.18
- VIX: 17.38 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.501%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $745.57 | 44.89 | 73.0 | $747.11 | Neutral | 1.08 |
| QQQ | $739.34 | 50.67 | 100.0 | $740.28 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| IWM | $297.39 | 54.94 | 83.1 | $294.18 | Neutral | 0.53 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.38 | 52.23 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.90 |
| TNX | 45.01 βΌ | 49.76 | 33.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $384.42 | 32.63 | 39.8 | $361.91 | Bearish | 2.08 |
| DXY | 100.97 | 78.11 | 21.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.59 | 30.52 | 21.8 | $25.00 | Neutral | 1.23 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.449
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.29B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.92%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.27% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 63.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 52.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 48.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 10.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $73.80 (5d: -8.6%)
- Brent Crude: $77.85 | Spread: $4.05
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.0900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.39
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.90
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.898 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.555 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.683 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.247 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,094,182.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,083,839.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $162.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $745.57)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.50%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.97
- Growth vs Value: 0.99
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,855B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,031B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,110B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,997B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,139 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Screener: CAVA β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 77/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: SATS β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 48/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: AMZN β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 47/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: CHWY β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 50/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: GOOGL β promotion-ready (9d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: GOOGL β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 70/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: GOOGL β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: GOOG β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 65/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: DPZ β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 60/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
- [INFO] Screener: WING β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 60/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 16% (n=247)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.24%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 226 vs Est. 225 (BEAT) | Prev: 230
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(Jun): 10.3 vs Est. 9.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -0.4
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,810 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,786
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725
- Philly Fed Employment(Jun): 7.9 | Prev: -2.8
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(Apr): 103.1 vs Est. 72.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 79.9
- US Leading Index(MoM)(May): 0.1% vs Est. 0.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.80 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 114 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 55 of 60 normal daily β 91.7% of normal
- Throughput: 86.4% of normal (8.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost