Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-22 09:36:43 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.449 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.73 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.56 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.69 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.25 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.24 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +1.0% yen weakening, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.449) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.449; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 54% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $749.25 | 50 SMA $729.66 | 200 SMA $688.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.1
- QQQ: $742.62 | 50 SMA $693.18 | 200 SMA $628.63 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.91
- IWM: $298.21 | 50 SMA $281.36 | 200 SMA $258.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $294.17
- VIX: 16.65 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.493%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $749.25 | 44.89 | 73.0 | $747.10 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| QQQ | $742.62 | 50.67 | 100.0 | $738.91 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| IWM | $298.21 | 54.94 | 83.1 | $294.17 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.65 | 52.23 | 94.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| TNX | 44.93 β² | 49.76 | 33.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $384.15 | 32.63 | 39.8 | $326.45 | Bearish | 1.98 |
| DXY | 100.96 | 78.01 | 21.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.07 | 30.52 | 21.8 | $31.29 | Neutral | 1.15 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.449
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.29B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.92%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.27% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 63.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 52.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 48.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 10.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $74.25 (5d: -8.1%)
- Brent Crude: $78.32 | Spread: $4.07
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $50.07/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.66
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.88
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.898 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.556 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.685 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.252 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 37,218.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 27,325.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.73 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $4.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $749.25)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.96
- Growth vs Value: 0.99
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,855B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,031B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,110B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,997B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,139 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $50.07/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $112.52 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=106950B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [INFO] SPY (746.94) reclaimed ZGL (741.91) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=106884B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.449 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] SPY (746.94) dropped below ZGL (747.05) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.24%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 226 vs Est. 225 (BEAT) | Prev: 230
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(Jun): 10.3 vs Est. 9.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -0.4
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,810 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,786
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725
- Philly Fed Employment(Jun): 7.9 | Prev: -2.8
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(Apr): 103.1 vs Est. 72.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 79.9
- US Leading Index(MoM)(May): 0.1% vs Est. 0.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.80 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] WTI Oil retreats as US-Iran progress, Hormuz assurances unwind risk premium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-retreats-as-us-iran-progress-hormuz-assurances-unwind-risk-premium-202606221313 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 13:13:18 Z
[2] Oil: Ceasefire talks ease risk - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-ceasefire-talks-ease-risk-bny-202606221305 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 13:05:19 Z
[3] US Dollar: Fedspeak and Hormuz risks guide USD - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fedspeak-and-hormuz-risks-guide-usd-ing-202606221251 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:51:45 Z
[4] Gold climbs as US-Iran talks make progress, Fed rate hike bets cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-as-us-iran-talks-make-progress-fed-rate-hike-bets-cap-upside-202606221238 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:38:22 Z
[5] Breaking: Canada CPI came in at 3.2% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-expected-to-show-rising-inflation-in-may-202606220800 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:37:37 Z
[6] S&P 500: Limited relief rally after US-Iran deal - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-limited-relief-rally-after-us-iran-deal-deutsche-bank-202606221235 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:35:02 Z
[7] Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-core-mom-climbed-from-previous-01-to-02-in-may-202606221231 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:31:45 Z
[8] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.2% (May) vs 2.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-yoy-22-may-vs-21-202606221230 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z
[9] Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3%) in May: Actual (3.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-yoy-above-forecasts-3-in-may-actual-32-202606221230 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[10] Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1%, above expectations (0.7%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-1-above-expectations-07-in-may-202606221230 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[11] Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) increased to 0.6% in May from previous 0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-boc-consumer-price-index-core-mom-increased-to-06-in-may-from-previous-02-202606221230 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[12] Mexican Peso: Bearish against US Dollar as Banxico looms - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-bearish-against-us-dollar-as-banxico-looms-societe-generale-202606221223 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 12:23:22 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US license extends authorization for Iranian oil transactions Time: 2026-06-22T13:15:50.142Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 114 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 20 of 60 normal daily β 33.3% of normal
- Throughput: 50.0% of normal (5.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS105000 (+210000% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost