Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-22 06:00:44 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.449 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.06 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.56 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.25 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.27 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 65 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, credit, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.449) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.449; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.94 | 50 SMA $729.66 | 200 SMA $688.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $741.77
- QQQ: $739.78 | 50 SMA $693.18 | 200 SMA $628.63 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $722.94
- IWM: $295.13 | 50 SMA $281.36 | 200 SMA $258.01 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.06
- VIX: 16.78 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.451%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.94 | 44.89 | 73.0 | $741.77 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| QQQ | $739.78 | 50.67 | 100.0 | $722.94 | None | None |
| IWM | $295.13 | 54.94 | 83.1 | $293.06 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.78 | 52.23 | 94.5 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 44.51 | 49.76 | 33.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $384.29 | 32.63 | 39.8 | $368.89 | None | None |
| DXY | 100.93 | 77.85 | 21.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.08 | 30.52 | 21.8 | $25.00 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.449
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.29B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.92%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.27% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 57.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 10.5% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $75.43 (5d: -6.6%)
- Brent Crude: $79.16 | Spread: $3.73
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.47/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.74
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.898 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.556 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.737 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.246 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 65.39
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 589,817.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 626,111.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.06 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $90.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $747 (Spot: $746.94)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.79 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.93
- Growth vs Value: 0.99
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,855B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,031B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,110B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,997B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,059 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.47/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $114.87 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=106950B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [INFO] SPY (746.94) reclaimed ZGL (741.91) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=106884B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.449 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] SPY (746.94) dropped below ZGL (747.05) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.22%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 226 vs Est. 225 (BEAT) | Prev: 230
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(Jun): 10.3 vs Est. 9.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -0.4
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,810 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,786
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725
- Philly Fed Employment(Jun): 7.9 | Prev: -2.8
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(Apr): 103.1 vs Est. 72.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 79.9
- US Leading Index(MoM)(May): 0.1% vs Est. 0.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] US Dollar: Stronger footing with higher yields - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-stronger-footing-with-higher-yields-mufg-202606220915 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 09:15:41 Z
[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains near $66.00 on US-Iran peace progress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-gains-near-6600-on-us-iran-peace-progress-202606220903 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 09:03:36 Z
[3] NZD/USD drops to fresh low since April vs bullish USD amid hawkish Fed, Iran uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-drops-to-fresh-low-since-april-vs-bullish-usd-amid-hawkish-fed-iran-uncertainty-202606220900 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 09:00:24 Z
[4] Canada CPI Preview: Inflation expected to tick higher in May, pressuring BoC outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-expected-to-show-rising-inflation-in-may-202606220800 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar: Downtrend extends versus US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-downtrend-extends-versus-us-dollar-societe-generale-202606220856 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:56:14 Z
[6] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Dips below 0.7000, nearing 11-week lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-dips-below-07000-nearing-11-week-lows-202606220854 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:54:36 Z
[7] Indian Rupee weakens on hopes of atleast two Fed interest rate hikes this year URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-holds-gains-as-iran-touts-progress-in-deal-with-us-202606220552 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:53:39 Z
[8] Australian Dollar strengthens against Japanese Yen due to carry-trades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-strengthens-against-japanese-yen-due-to-carry-trades-202606220841 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:41:34 Z
[9] Breaking: UK PM Starmer resigns, says nominations will open July 9 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-uk-pm-starmer-resigns-says-nominations-will-open-july-9-202606220840 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:40:20 Z
[10] Australian Dollar: Downward bias toward 0.6980 versus US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-downward-bias-toward-06980-versus-us-dollar-uob-202606220837 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:37:32 Z
[11] Euro weakens against US Dollar as hawkish Fed bets hog limelight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-against-us-dollar-as-hawkish-fed-bets-hog-limelight-202606220831 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:31:28 Z
[12] Gold lacks bullish conviction near $4,200 as Fed hike bets and Iran risks underpin USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-sticks-to-modest-gains-bulls-seem-hesitant-amid-fed-hike-bets-iran-risks-202606220346 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:18:44 Z
[13] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Looking overstretched at YTD highs near 0.8100 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-looking-overstretched-at-ytd-highs-near-08100-202606220808 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:08:18 Z
[14] Euro: Pressured as US Dollar stays firm - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pressured-as-us-dollar-stays-firm-danske-bank-202606220804 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:04:08 Z
[15] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Nears two year high, around 161.75 as intervention risks loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-nears-two-year-high-around-16175-as-intervention-risks-loom-202606220802 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:02:55 Z
[16] British Pound: Political uncertainty and EUR/GBP upside - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-political-uncertainty-and-eur-gbp-upside-commerzbank-202606220802 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:02:11 Z
[17] Indonesian Rupiah: Fiscal risks keep caution - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-fiscal-risks-keep-caution-mufg-202606220759 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:59:20 Z
[18] Dow Jones futures move little due to US-Iran uncertainty, Fed hawkish outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-move-little-due-to-us-iran-uncertainty-fed-hawkish-outlook-202606220752 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:52:48 Z
[19] ECB's EscrivΓ‘: We need to monitor for second-round effects on wages URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-escriva-we-need-to-monitor-for-second-round-effects-on-wages-202606220751 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:51:57 Z
[20] Forex Today: Markets remain cautious despite news of US and Iran making progress in talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-markets-remain-cautious-despite-news-of-us-and-iran-making-progress-in-talks-202606220739 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:39:31 Z
[21] British Pound: Weak bias against US Dollar with key support in focus - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-weak-bias-against-us-dollar-with-key-support-in-focus-uob-202606220732 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:32:33 Z
[22] British Pound rallies to 213.70 vs bearish JPY as Iran risks counter BoJ, UK politics URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rallies-to-21370-vs-bearish-jpy-as-iran-risks-counter-boj-uk-politics-202606220727 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:27:23 Z
[23] WTI Price Forecast: In a bearish channel, with the $75 level under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-in-a-bearish-channel-with-the-75-level-under-pressure-202606220723 Published: Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:23:24 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran to begin using blocked assets in coming days, bank chief says Time: 2026-06-22T09:22:44.536Z
[2] Iran-US deal is Israel's biggest diplomatic disaster, ex-defense minister says Time: 2026-06-22T08:59:55.510Z
[3] Iran's Supreme Leader authorized talks with US, IRGC official says Time: 2026-06-22T08:28:00.484Z
[4] Gharibabadi leads Iran technical talks with US in Switzerland - state media Time: 2026-06-22T08:10:28.526Z
[5] No nuclear talks held in Switzerland - Tasnim News Time: 2026-06-22T08:04:55.513Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 114 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost