Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-21 08:00:48 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY N/A (missing price data) | Alignment: N/A (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: UNDECIDED β Undecided β too few directional signals to measure alignment
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β | DIX 0.449 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.24 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β | GEX +7.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β | Breadth 57% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +7.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.23% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.76 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.29 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX unavailable |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Insufficient directional signals to measure alignment β most categories read neutral.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 81/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 81 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.449) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.449; GEX positive at 7.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- No key level data available.
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
| QQQ | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
| IWM | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
| TNX | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
| GLD | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
| DXY | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
| SLV | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - | - |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.449
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.29B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.92%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.27% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 442
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 48.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 11.1% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $76.54 (5d: -5.2%)
- Brent Crude: $80.59 | Spread: $4.05
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.04/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.74
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.874 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.572 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.758 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.29 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: β
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.36
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $701.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $747 (Spot: $746.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 0.00%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.00 (N/A)
- DXY: 0.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.99
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.25%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,855B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,037B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,119B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,012B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,090 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.23% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.04/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $114.87 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #4): max=159186B avg=106884B
- [INFO] SPY (746.94) reclaimed ZGL (741.91) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.449 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] SPY (746.94) dropped below ZGL (747.05) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.22%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 226 vs Est. 225 (BEAT) | Prev: 230
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(Jun): 10.3 vs Est. 9.8 (BEAT) | Prev: -0.4
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,810 vs Est. 1,800 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,786
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,736 | Prev: 6,725
- Philly Fed Employment(Jun): 7.9 | Prev: -2.8
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(Apr): 103.1 vs Est. 72.5 (BEAT) | Prev: 79.9
- US Leading Index(MoM)(May): 0.1% vs Est. 0.1% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] Hormuz will stay shut unless Israel is curbed in Lebanon - IRGC media Time: 2026-06-21T11:37:50.214Z
[BREAKING] [2] US-Iran high-level talks begin in Switzerland, Qatar says Time: 2026-06-21T11:24:57.672Z
[3] Video: Security forces open fire on protesters during January protests in Rasht Time: 2026-06-21T11:13:26.551Z
[4] Katz says Israel forces face no limits in Lebanon Time: 2026-06-21T11:08:36.211Z
[5] Vance, Sharif meet on sidelines of US-Iran talks in Switzerland Time: 2026-06-21T10:50:55.026Z
[6] Swiss foreign minister says Lake Lucerne Summit provides framework for Iran dialogue Time: 2026-06-21T10:23:44.284Z
[7] IAEA chief meets Swiss foreign minister to discuss Iran Time: 2026-06-21T10:00:03.132Z
[8] Over 4,000 cases opened in central Iran over January protests Time: 2026-06-21T09:48:38.790Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 113 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily β 91.7% of normal
- Throughput: 20.4% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost