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2026-W25

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-18 04:01:02 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.18 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.505 loose
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 54% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy FALLING β€” oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +8.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.14% restrictive
news_sentiment βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.63 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.25 normal
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 18.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, credit, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 85/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $742.36 | 50 SMA $726.61 | 200 SMA $687.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $733.29
  • QQQ: $725.20 | 50 SMA $687.82 | 200 SMA $627.00 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $713.72
  • IWM: $290.62 | 50 SMA $279.92 | 200 SMA $257.42 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.91
  • VIX: 18.44 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.463%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $742.36 49.92 68.3 $733.29 Bearish 1.67
QQQ $725.20 50.13 100.0 $713.72 Neutral 1.36
IWM $290.62 51.80 80.9 $290.91 Bearish 1.56

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.44 50.28 85.8 $10.48 Neutral 0.89
TNX 44.63 43.29 37.3 - - -
GLD $390.49 43.57 38.9 $300.00 Neutral 1.15
DXY 100.36 72.80 21.7 - - -
SLV $61.37 39.54 21.9 $46.50 Neutral 1.00

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.43B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.29% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 70.1% 0/0
Industrials 70.1% 0/0
Real Estate 60.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 58.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 54.2% 0/0
Materials 54.2% 0/0
Health Care 53.7% 0/0
Technology 50.8% 0/0
Utilities 33.3% 0/0
Communication Services 20.0% 0/0
Energy 10.5% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $75.01 (5d: -14.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $78.69 | Spread: $3.68
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8300/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.1200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $47.91/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $54.67
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.57

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.868 normal
SPY / DXY -0.627 stretched
SPY / TNX -0.737 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.247 normal

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.66
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,891,098.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,585,219.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.18 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $628.1B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $740 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $742.36)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.46%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.36
  • Growth vs Value: 0.98
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.8B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,890B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,059B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,137B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,087B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,394 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 54%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.14% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $47.91/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $114.23 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=106390B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.17%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Core Retail Sales(MoM)(May): 0.8% vs Est. 0.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.7%
  • Crude Oil Inventories: -8.263 vs Est. -3.600 (MISS) | Prev: -7.227
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision: 3.75% vs Est. 3.75% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.75%
  • Retail Sales(MoM)(May): 0.9% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.4%
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.0% vs Est. 2.8% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.8%
  • Business Inventories(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%
  • Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.606 | Prev: -0.801
  • Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr(Q2): 3.6% | Prev: 3.1%
  • Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr(Q2): 3.4% | Prev: 3.1%
  • Interest Rate Projection - Current(Q2): 3.8% | Prev: 3.4%
  • Interest Rate Projection - Longer(Q2): 3.1% | Prev: 3.1%
  • Pending Home Sales(MoM)(May): 3.8% vs Est. 0.8% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.3%
  • Retail Control(MoM)(May): 0.7% vs Est. 0.4% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.5%
  • Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% vs Est. 0.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.6%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-07-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] SNB keeps policy rate unchanged at 0% in June: What it means for Swiss Franc URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/snb-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-at-0-in-june-what-it-means-for-swiss-franc-202606180739 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:39:07 Z

[2] Bank Indonesia increases rates by 25 basis points in June: Will it defend the Rupiah? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bi-increases-rates-by-25-basis-points-in-june-202606180734 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:34:59 Z

[3] Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets forecasts (5.75%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-bank-indonesia-rate-meets-forecasts-575-202606180730 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:30:25 Z

[4] Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (0%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-snb-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-0-202606180730 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:30:02 Z

[5] WTI Oil dips to fresh three-month lows sub-$74 amid Middle East peace hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-dips-to-fresh-three-month-lows-sub-74-amid-middle-east-peace-hopes-202606180728 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:28:12 Z

[6] BoE expected to keep interest rate on hold for fourth consecutive meeting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boe-expected-to-keep-interest-rate-unchanged-as-inflation-pressures-abate-202606180600 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:15:00 Z

[7] British Pound holds gains vs JPY after UK jobs data; lacks bullish conviction ahead of BoE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-gains-vs-jpy-after-uk-jobs-data-lacks-bullish-conviction-ahead-of-boe-202606180708 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:08:44 Z

[8] Japanese Yen: Near intervention levels as Dollar climbs - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-near-intervention-levels-as-dollar-climbs-deutsche-bank-202606180702 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:02:16 Z

[9] UK labour market: Mixed signals extend MPC patience - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-labour-market-mixed-signals-extend-mpc-patience-deutsche-bank-202606180701 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:01:14 Z

[10] British Pound remains on the defensive as investors await BoE's decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-on-the-defensive-as-investors-await-boes-decision-202606180700 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:00:06 Z

[11] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades above 185.00 after rebounding from ascending channel bottom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-trades-above-18500-after-rebounding-from-ascending-channel-bottom-202606180658 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:58:49 Z

[12] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Gains ground above 1.4100, but overbought signals flag pullback risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-gains-ground-above-14100-but-overbought-signals-flag-pullback-risk-202606180656 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:56:42 Z

[13] Forex Today: US Dollar rallies on hawkish Fed, focus shifts to BoE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-rallies-on-hawkish-fed-focus-shifts-to-boe-202606180648 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:48:05 Z

[14] Gold retains intraday bullish bias near $4,300 as hawkish Fed bets cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retakes-4-300-as-us-iran-peace-deal-weighs-on-usd-after-hawkish-fed-202606180345 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:39:58 Z

[15] United States Dollar Index: Hawkish Fed repricing supports gains - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-hawkish-fed-repricing-supports-gains-deutsche-bank-202606180635 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:35:01 Z

[16] Gold: Higher yields and stronger Dollar weigh - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-higher-yields-and-stronger-dollar-weigh-deutsche-bank-202606180633 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:33:49 Z

[17] Indian Rupee rises on risk-on mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-advances-as-fading-risk-aversion-weighs-on-us-dollar-202606180440 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:31:28 Z

[18] Euro trims gains against the British Pound after UK jobs data, BoE rate decision looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trims-gains-against-the-british-pound-after-uk-jobs-data-boe-rate-decision-looms-202606180614 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:14:54 Z

[19] Switzerland Exports (MoM) increased to 25128M in May from previous 22286M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-exports-mom-increased-to-25128m-in-may-from-previous-22286m-202606180610 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:10:44 Z

[20] Switzerland Imports (MoM) fell from previous 19188M to 19018M in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-imports-mom-fell-from-previous-19188m-to-19018m-in-may-202606180610 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:10:40 Z

[21] United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate climbed from previous 4.4% to 4.5% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-claimant-count-rate-climbed-from-previous-44-to-45-in-may-202606180603 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:03:18 Z

[22] United Kingdom Unemployment Rate falls to 4.9% in April: What it means for the British Pound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-unemployment-rate-falls-to-49-in-april-what-it-means-for-the-british-pound-202606180601 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:01:07 Z

[23] Switzerland Trade Balance increased to 6110M in May from previous 3098M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-trade-balance-increased-to-6110m-in-may-from-previous-3098m-202606180601 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:01:06 Z

[24] United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) came in at 100K, above forecasts (80K) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-employment-change-3m-came-in-at-100k-above-forecasts-80k-in-april-202606180600 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:00:21 Z

[25] United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 4.4%, above expectations (4%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-average-earnings-including-bonus-3mo-yr-came-in-at-44-above-expectations-4-in-april-202606180600 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:00:05 Z

[26] United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) registered at 4.9%, below expectations (5%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-ilo-unemployment-rate-3m-registered-at-49-below-expectations-5-in-april-202606180600 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:00:04 Z

[27] United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 3.4% above expectations (3.2%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-average-earnings-excluding-bonus-3mo-yr-registered-at-34-above-expectations-32-in-april-202606180600 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:00:04 Z

[28] United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 31.2K above expectations (25.8K) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-claimant-count-change-registered-at-312k-above-expectations-258k-in-may-202606180600 Published: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:00:03 Z

Iran War News

Updates (8):

[1] IAEA chief says technical work starts after US-Iran MOU Time: 2026-06-18T07:47:07.649Z

[BREAKING] [2] Iran official says 89% of war-hit petrochemical units back online after war Time: 2026-06-18T07:41:32.215Z

[3] Iran lawmaker says US 'cannot be wiped off the earth' Time: 2026-06-18T07:24:40.268Z

[4] Hormuz reopening may not stop Iran war's food inflation ripple - BBG Time: 2026-06-18T07:19:32.614Z

[5] US, Iran to hold initial talks in Switzerland on Friday Time: 2026-06-18T07:14:51.946Z

[6] One-ton bomb from recent war defused in west Iran - IRGC media Time: 2026-06-18T06:43:09.180Z

[7] Iran will pursue US understanding with 'complete distrust,' lawmaker says Time: 2026-06-18T06:24:32.720Z

[8] Germany sends ships toward Red Sea for possible Hormuz mission Time: 2026-06-18T06:08:50.314Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 110 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 0 of 60 normal daily β€” 0.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 0.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 26.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost