Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-16 12:40:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.4% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% benign, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 69% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy SHOCK_DOWN β rapid oil decline, let credit and breadth lead |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.8% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.17% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.66 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.73 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.27 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.45 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 25 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, credit, and breadth leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $752.63 | 50 SMA $724.78 | 200 SMA $686.84 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $730.66
- QQQ: $733.81 | 50 SMA $684.99 | 200 SMA $626.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.97
- IWM: $293.36 | 50 SMA $279.12 | 200 SMA $257.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $291.12
- VIX: 15.95 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.426%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $752.63 | 52.59 | 71.6 | $730.66 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| QQQ | $733.81 | 54.82 | 100.0 | $710.97 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| IWM | $293.36 | 54.57 | 92.4 | $291.12 | Neutral | 1.21 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.95 | 48.13 | 86.0 | $10.52 | Bearish | 2.96 |
| TNX | 44.26 β² | 46.72 | 68.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.70 | 40.18 | 40.7 | $330.00 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| DXY | 99.48 | 56.50 | 14.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.52 | 35.66 | 27.7 | $46.50 | Neutral | 0.95 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.92%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 110
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 86.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 84.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 68.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 45.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 14.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 0.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK_DOWN
- WTI Crude: $75.04 (5d: -16.6%)
- Brent Crude: $78.70 | Spread: $3.66
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.90/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $55.19
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.68
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.858 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.657 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.733 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.266 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.36
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,765,792.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,983,022.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $432.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $752.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.43%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.80 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.48
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 25/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,122B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,141B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,160B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,874 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 69%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.17% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.90/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $113.67 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=105081B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=104357B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=104275B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.25%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 25.50 | Prev: 29.00
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Building Permits(May): 1.413 vs Est. 1.420 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
- Export Price Index(MoM)(May): 1.3% vs Est. 1.2% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.5%
- Housing Starts(May): 1.177 vs Est. 1.430 (MISS) | Prev: 1.392
- Housing Starts(MoM)(May): -15.4% | Prev: -8.5%
- Import Price Index(MoM)(May): 1.9% vs Est. 0.9% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.0%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 108 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 4000.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS100 (+100% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $5.2 billion/day economic cost