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2026-W25

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-16 06:00:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.5% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.91 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.506 loose
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 63% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +9.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.17% restrictive
news_sentiment βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.71 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.32 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.41 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 25 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, credit, and breadth leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 85/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $753.39 | 50 SMA $722.80 | 200 SMA $686.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $735.61
  • QQQ: $742.22 | 50 SMA $681.81 | 200 SMA $625.38 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $719.02
  • IWM: $294.19 | 50 SMA $278.25 | 200 SMA $256.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $290.85
  • VIX: 16.20 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.469%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $753.39 47.36 64.9 $735.61 Bearish 0.31
QQQ $742.22 51.43 99.1 $719.02 Bearish 0.07
IWM $294.19 58.01 92.5 $290.85 Neutral 0.65

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.20 52.64 85.1 $10.53 Bearish 2.06
TNX 44.69 41.40 68.1 - - -
GLD $395.92 32.75 36.6 $320.00 Neutral 0.89
DXY 99.75 59.39 15.1 - - -
SLV $63.28 33.14 27.3 $46.50 Neutral 0.77

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.1%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.7%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.4%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 77.6% 0/0
Real Estate 75.0% 0/0
Industrials 74.6% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 66.1% 0/0
Technology 64.6% 0/0
Consumer Staples 61.8% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Materials 54.2% 0/0
Utilities 50.0% 0/0
Communication Services 30.0% 0/0
Energy 21.1% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $81.36 (5d: -7.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $83.64 | Spread: $2.28
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.2200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.92/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $55.55
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.43

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.86 normal
SPY / DXY -0.711 stretched
SPY / TNX -0.788 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.317 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.38
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 5,012,696.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,571,220.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.91 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $723.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $753.39)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.47%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.75
  • Growth vs Value: 0.99
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 25/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,115B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,145B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,156B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,490 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 63%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.17% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.92/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $121.21 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=105081B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [INFO] Screener: MSM β€” confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 54% (n=141)).
  • [INFO] Screener: ZION β€” confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 48/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 54% (n=141)).
  • [INFO] Screener: IBOC β€” confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 39/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 54% (n=141)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.26%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.6475 | Prev: 102.509

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] Japanese Yen: Gradual BoJ tightening keeps currency under pressure - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-gradual-boj-tightening-keeps-currency-under-pressure-mufg-202606160934 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:34:55 Z

[2] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606160930 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:30:11 Z

[3] USD/CNH: Grind lower toward key support - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cnh-grind-lower-toward-key-support-uob-202606160927 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:27:16 Z

[4] Eurozone ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment came in at 9.5, above expectations (-7.2) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-came-in-at-95-above-expectations-72-in-june-202606160900 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:55 Z

[5] Eurozone Labor Cost Index below expectations (3.3%) in 1Q: Actual (3.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-labor-cost-index-below-expectations-33-in-1q-actual-32-202606160900 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:03 Z

[6] Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation registered at -81, below expectations (-77.5) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-current-situation-registered-at-81-below-expectations-775-in-june-202606160900 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z

[7] Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment registered at 10.5 above expectations (-6) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-registered-at-105-above-expectations-6-in-june-202606160900 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:01 Z

[8] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Clinging to 0.5800 support as risk appetite ebbs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-clinging-to-05800-support-as-risk-appetite-ebbs-202606160853 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:53:43 Z

[9] British Pound: Upside risks but momentum flattening - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upside-risks-but-momentum-flattening-uob-202606160853 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:53:40 Z

[10] Indian Rupee reflects strength on FIIs buying, lower oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-trades-firmly-amid-signs-of-renewed-fiis-interest-towards-indian-stock-market-202606160511 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:41:12 Z

[11] Canadian Dollar: Uptrend extends towards 1.4150 - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-uptrend-extends-towards-14150-societe-generale-202606160830 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:30:11 Z

[12] US Dollar: Fed focus offsets oil slide - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-focus-offsets-oil-slide-ing-202606160822 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:22:30 Z

[13] Euro: Upside bias capped by resistance - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-bias-capped-by-resistance-uob-202606160821 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:21:21 Z

[14] Gold: Recovery needs softer Oil and peak Fed repricing - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-recovery-needs-softer-oil-and-peak-fed-repricing-ocbc-202606160815 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:15:05 Z

[15] Japanese Yen: BoJ path points to medium‑term gains - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-path-points-to-medium-term-gains-societe-generale-202606160812 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:12:57 Z

[16] Euro: Unstable floor with downside risks - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-unstable-floor-with-downside-risks-ing-202606160808 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:08:08 Z

[17] Indonesian Rupiah to extend recovery if BI stays firm - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-to-extend-recovery-if-bi-stays-firm-ocbc-202606160806 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:06:53 Z

[18] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below expectations (3.3%) in May: Actual (3.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-below-expectations-33-in-may-actual-32-202606160801 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:01:48 Z

[19] Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-32-in-may-202606160801 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:01:29 Z

[20] Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-04-in-may-202606160801 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:01:27 Z

[21] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-came-in-at-03-below-expectations-04-in-may-202606160801 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 08:01:23 Z

[22] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Treading water around 1.3400 with central banks in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-treading-water-around-13400-with-central-banks-in-focus-202606160759 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:59:05 Z

[23] Australian Dollar: Hawkish RBA fails to impress markets - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-hawkish-rba-fails-to-impress-markets-ing-202606160754 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:54:14 Z

[24] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike fails to lift currency - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-fails-to-lift-currency-ing-202606160753 Published: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 07:53:22 Z

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[BREAKING] [1] Trump says Iran deal moving to 'second stage' Time: 2026-06-16T09:47:57.551Z

[2] Iran MP vows revenge against US over killing of Supreme Leader Time: 2026-06-16T09:22:22.283Z

[3] Over 6,000 power connections removed in southeast Iran, official says Time: 2026-06-16T09:06:50.768Z

[4] Blast injures five, damages 3 buildings in western Iran Time: 2026-06-16T08:47:54.846Z

[5] Ghalibaf, Vance to attend MOU signing in Switzerland, Iran deputy FM says Time: 2026-06-16T08:35:48.576Z

[6] Qatar plans rapid LNG output boost after Hormuz reopening - Bloomberg Time: 2026-06-16T08:14:29.082Z

[7] US-Iran talks to resume Friday in Switzerland, Araghchi says Time: 2026-06-16T07:37:00.888Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 108 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β€” 3.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 13.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS700 (+1300% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost