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2026-W25

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-15 06:00:49 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (8 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +3.3B strong suppression
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 61% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +11.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive
news_sentiment βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.74 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.23 normal
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.31 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β€” dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 89/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; GEX positive at 3.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $742.36 | 50 SMA $722.80 | 200 SMA $686.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $724.5
  • QQQ: $722.98 | 50 SMA $681.81 | 200 SMA $625.38 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.98
  • IWM: $293.59 | 50 SMA $278.25 | 200 SMA $256.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $283.78
  • VIX: 17.68 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.487%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $742.36 47.36 64.9 $724.50 Neutral 1.02
QQQ $722.98 51.43 99.1 $710.98 Neutral 0.73
IWM $293.59 58.01 92.5 $283.78 Neutral 1.04

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 17.68 52.64 85.1 $10.50 Bearish 2.63
TNX 44.87 β–² 41.40 68.1 - - -
GLD $387.23 32.75 36.6 $300.00 Neutral 1.06
DXY 99.75 59.39 15.1 - - -
SLV $61.47 33.14 27.3 $46.50 Neutral 0.99

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.33B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.94%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.7%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 85.7% 0/0
Financials 72.1% 0/0
Consumer Staples 70.6% 0/0
Industrials 67.2% 0/0
Technology 60.0% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 57.6% 0/0
Materials 54.2% 0/0
Utilities 46.7% 0/0
Energy 31.6% 0/0
Communication Services 30.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $84.88 (5d: -7.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $87.33 | Spread: $2.45
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.3600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.88/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $57.55
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.35

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.862 normal
SPY / DXY -0.739 stretched
SPY / TNX -0.792 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.234 normal

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.36
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $754.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $742.36)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.49%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.75
  • Growth vs Value: 0.97
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.39% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,119B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,147B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,162B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,538 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +3.3B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 61%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.88/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $125.43 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=104357B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=104275B
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.432 β€” institutional buying support fading.
  • [INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) β€” volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.17%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.9% (MISS) | Prev: 4.8%
  • Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.4% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 3.9%
  • Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 49.3 vs Est. 44.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 48.9 vs Est. 46.1 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] British Pound: BoE hikes and politics cap Pound - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-boe-hikes-and-politics-cap-pound-bbh-202606150938 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:38:35 Z

[2] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606150930 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:30:14 Z

[3] WTI falls below $79.00 to three-month lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-below-7900-to-three-month-lows-202606150912 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:12:08 Z

[4] Japanese Yen: High stakes around BoJ and Fed - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-high-stakes-around-boj-and-fed-societe-generale-202606150910 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:10:55 Z

[5] Euro: Bid tone with defined ranges - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-bid-tone-with-defined-ranges-societe-generale-202606150904 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:04:57 Z

[6] Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. dipped from previous €3.5B to €1.3B in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-trade-balance-sa-dipped-from-previous-eu35b-to-eu13b-in-april-202606150900 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:00:51 Z

[7] Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €-1B below forecasts (€7.8B) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-trade-balance-nsa-came-in-at-eu-1b-below-forecasts-eu78b-in-april-202606150900 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:00:03 Z

[8] Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) climbed from previous -2.1% to 0.3% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-wda-yoy-climbed-from-previous-21-to-03-in-april-202606150900 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z

[9] Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-sa-mom-came-in-at-01-below-expectations-03-in-april-202606150900 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z

[10] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Slips below 0.7950, nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-slips-below-07950-nine-day-ema-202606150843 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:43:39 Z

[11] EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Bulls push against 0.8644 highs amid higher risk appetite URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecasts-bulls-push-against-08644-highs-amid-higher-risk-appetite-202606150839 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:39:29 Z

[12] Indian Rupee rallies as oil prices nosedive on US-Iran deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-surges-as-oil-prices-nosedive-on-us-iran-mou-finalization-202606150451 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:39:26 Z

[13] British Pound: Faces policy and political risks - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-faces-policy-and-political-risks-ing-202606150830 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:30:10 Z

[14] Euro gains against Japanese Yen on US-Iran deal, eyes on BoJ policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-against-japanese-yen-on-us-iran-deal-eyes-on-boj-policy-202606150823 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:23:18 Z

[15] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike offers limited Yen relief - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-offers-limited-yen-relief-bbh-202606150812 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:12:24 Z

[16] Dow Jones futures rise on US-Iran peace deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-on-us-iran-peace-deal-202606150810 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:10:32 Z

[17] Italy Trade Balance EU increased to €0.316B in April from previous €-1.08B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-trade-balance-eu-increased-to-eu0316b-in-april-from-previous-eu-108b-202606150802 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:02:09 Z

[18] Qatar to hold separate meetings with US-Iran officials before deal signing - AFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/qatar-to-hold-separate-meetings-with-us-iran-officials-before-deal-signing-afp-202606150801 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:01:55 Z

[19] Turkey Budget Balance increased to -298.2B in May from previous -338.7B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-budget-balance-increased-to-2982b-in-may-from-previous-3387b-202606150801 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:01:37 Z

[20] Italy Global Trade Balance below forecasts (€5.19B) in April: Actual (€4.293B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-global-trade-balance-below-forecasts-eu519b-in-april-actual-eu4293b-202606150801 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:01:27 Z

[21] United States Dollar: Dollar explores downside risks - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-dollar-explores-downside-risks-ing-202606150800 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:00:51 Z

[22] Forex Today: Risk flows command markets on US-Iran peace deal yet to be signed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-risk-flows-command-markets-on-us-iran-peace-deal-yet-to-be-signed-202606150753 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:53:57 Z

[23] British Pound picks up amid peace hopes with central banks coming into focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-picks-up-amid-peace-hopes-with-central-banks-coming-into-focus-202606150753 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:53:23 Z

[24] ECB's Nagel: It will take months for oil supply to return to normal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-nagel-it-will-take-months-for-oil-supply-to-return-to-normal-202606150751 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:51:16 Z

[25] ECB's Kazaks: Warned that upside inflation risks remain intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-kazaks-warned-that-upside-inflation-risks-remain-intact-202606150741 Published: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:41:49 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Iraq welcomes US-Iran MOU, urges diplomacy Time: 2026-06-15T09:46:08.523Z

[2] Iran-US MOU changed at final stage - Fars News Time: 2026-06-15T09:43:13.604Z

[3] UAE welcomes US-Iran MOU, urges full implementation Time: 2026-06-15T09:25:12.887Z

[4] BIMCO says Hormuz transit remains very risky for ships Time: 2026-06-15T09:19:38.485Z

[5] Pakistan to host US-Iran signing ceremony in Geneva Time: 2026-06-15T09:11:47.418Z

[BREAKING] [6] Container ship attacked off Yemen coast, UKMTO says Time: 2026-06-15T09:07:19.379Z

[7] GCC says US-Iran MOU could lead to lasting regional accord Time: 2026-06-15T09:02:54.761Z

[8] UN rights chief welcomes US-Iran MOU Time: 2026-06-15T08:47:10.723Z

[9] Lebanon parliament speaker welcomes US-Iran MOU Time: 2026-06-15T08:37:49.831Z

[10] German shipowners cautiously optimistic over Hormuz reopening Time: 2026-06-15T08:26:37.276Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 107 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β€” 2.1% of normal
  • Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 354
  • Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 26.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost