Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-14 20:00:52 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (8 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.3B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +11.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.16% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.73 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.23 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.31 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 89/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; GEX positive at 3.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.36 | 50 SMA $722.80 | 200 SMA $686.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $724.5
- QQQ: $722.98 | 50 SMA $681.81 | 200 SMA $625.38 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.98
- IWM: $293.59 | 50 SMA $278.25 | 200 SMA $256.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $283.78
- VIX: 17.68 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.487%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.36 | 47.36 | 64.9 | $724.50 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| QQQ | $722.98 | 51.43 | 99.1 | $710.98 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| IWM | $293.59 | 58.01 | 92.5 | $283.78 | Neutral | 1.04 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.68 | 52.64 | 85.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 2.63 |
| TNX | 44.87 β² | 41.40 | 68.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $387.23 | 32.75 | 36.6 | $300.00 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| DXY | 99.75 | 59.39 | 15.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.47 | 33.14 | 27.3 | $46.50 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.33B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 30.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.88 (5d: -7.0%)
- Brent Crude: $87.33 | Spread: $2.45
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.3600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.88/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.55
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.35
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.863 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.731 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.794 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.234 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.36
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $754.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $742.36)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.75
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.39% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,101B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,147B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,146B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,421 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +3.3B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 61%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.88/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $125.43 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=104275B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.432 β institutional buying support fading.
- [INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.17%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.9% (MISS) | Prev: 4.8%
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.4% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 3.9%
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 49.3 vs Est. 44.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 48.9 vs Est. 46.1 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Australian Dollar advances above 0.7050 as US and Iran announce a peace deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-advances-above-07050-as-us-and-iran-announce-a-peace-deal-202606142326 Published: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 23:26:40 Z
[2] United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) down to -0.6% in June from previous 1.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-rightmove-house-price-index-mom-down-to-06-in-june-from-previous-12-202606142303 Published: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 23:03:16 Z
[3] New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2% to 3.3% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-electronic-card-retail-sales-yoy-rose-from-previous-2-to-33-in-may-202606142245 Published: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:45:02 Z
[4] New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM): 1.7% (May) vs -1.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-electronic-card-retail-sales-mom-17-may-vs-13-202606142245 Published: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:45:02 Z
[5] US and Iran agree on peace deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-and-iran-agree-on-peace-deal-to-end-war-and-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-202606142232 Published: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:32:05 Z
[6] New Zealand Business NZ PSI declined to 47.5 in May from previous 48.9 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-business-nz-psi-declined-to-475-in-may-from-previous-489-202606142231 Published: Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:31:41 Z
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] UN chief welcomes Iran-US peace deal, praises regional mediators Time: 2026-06-14T23:47:32.625Z
[2] Iran media publish purported details of Iran-US draft agreement Time: 2026-06-14T23:36:50.742Z
[3] UK, France, Germany and Italy signal readiness to lift Iran sanctions Time: 2026-06-14T23:21:43.451Z
[BREAKING] [4] Iran security council confirms US memorandum, says war ends immediately Time: 2026-06-14T22:58:23.058Z
[5] Trump hails Iran deal, says Strait of Hormuz to reopen Friday Time: 2026-06-14T22:43:11.312Z
[6] Britain welcomes US-Iran deal, offers support for next talks Time: 2026-06-14T22:34:53.040Z
[7] Qatar PM welcomes US-Iran memorandum of understanding Time: 2026-06-14T22:19:19.618Z
[BREAKING] [8] Iran says final talks start only after assets are unfrozen Time: 2026-06-14T22:12:55.314Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 106 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 354
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS415 (+730% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $14.2 billion/day economic cost