Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-14 11:15:10 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (8 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.464 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +3.3B strong suppression
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +11.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.16% restrictive
news_sentiment	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.73 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.23 normal
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.31 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 24 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.0% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 89/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.464; GEX positive at 3.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.36 | 50 SMA $722.80 | 200 SMA $686.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $724.5
QQQ: $722.98 | 50 SMA $681.81 | 200 SMA $625.38 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.98
IWM: $293.59 | 50 SMA $278.25 | 200 SMA $256.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $283.78
VIX: 17.68 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.487%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.36	47.36	64.9	$724.50	Neutral	1.02
QQQ	$722.98	51.43	99.1	$710.98	Neutral	0.73
IWM	$293.59	58.01	92.5	$283.78	Neutral	1.04

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.68	52.64	85.1	$10.50	Bearish	2.63
TNX	44.87 ▲	41.40	68.1	-	-	-
GLD	$387.23	32.75	36.6	$300.00	Neutral	1.06
DXY	99.75	59.39	15.1	-	-	-
SLV	$61.47	33.14	27.3	$46.50	Neutral	0.99

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.464
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.33B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.94%
2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.7%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Real Estate	85.7%	0/0
Financials	72.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Technology	60.0%	0/0
Health Care	59.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	57.6%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Utilities	46.7%	0/0
Energy	31.6%	0/0
Communication Services	30.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.88 (5d: -7.0%)
Brent Crude: $87.33 | Spread: $2.45
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
Heating Oil: $3.3600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.88/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.55
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.35

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.863	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.731	stretched
SPY / TNX	-0.794	stretched
SPY / Oil	-0.234	normal

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.36
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $754.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $742.36)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -205,644 contracts (Z -1.50, as of 2026-06-09)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.49%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
DXY: 99.75
Growth vs Value: 0.97
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.39% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,101B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,147B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,146B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,269 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.464, GEX +3.3B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 61%.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.16% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.88/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $125.43 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=104275B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.432 — institutional buying support fading.
[INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B

Seasonality

Current Month: June
Average Return: +0.17%
Median Return: +0.46%
Hit Rate: 55%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 4.6% vs Est. 4.9% (MISS) | Prev: 4.8%
Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations(Jun): 3.4% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 3.9%
Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): 49.3 vs Est. 44.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): 48.9 vs Est. 46.1 (BEAT) | Prev: 44.8

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.78 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Waltz says Trump still intends Iran MoU to be signed Time: 2026-06-14T15:08:05.297Z

[BREAKING] [2] Trump says Israel shouldn't have attacked Beirut as US-Iran deal 'very close' Time: 2026-06-14T14:55:04.814Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 106 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 287
Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 10.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS205 (+310% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost